Friday, September 12, 2025

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - USDA Will Release Milk Production and Price Estimates

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: 2 to 3 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

There seems to be no bottom in the market with the continued weakness of underlying cash. Seasonal price strength is nowhere to be found. Higher milk production leaves sufficient milk available for demand. USDA will release its estimates for milk production, milk prices, and dairy product prices for this year and for 2026. The expectation is for milk and dairy product prices to be lowered due to the weakness of prices over the past weeks. This report is not a market-mover but an indication of the potential for the market. The report will have larger implications for grain prices and the cost of feed over the next year.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are near the bottom of the range that they've been in since November and will hopefully find buying interest at these lower prices. Lower prices should improve demand, but buyers have been comfortable with supplies and have not been aggressive buyers.

BUTTER:

The butter price will likely see further weakness as buyers hold out for lower prices. Sellers remain the aggressor and continue to offer butter on the spot market at lower prices. The cream supply is increasing, keeping churns active and sufficient butter available for demand, reducing the need to supplement production with inventory.




Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - USDA Will Release Milk Production and Price Estimates

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 6 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower ...