Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - June Milk Production Report Released Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $0.50 to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

Limited volatility is anticipated today unless there is a significant move in underlying cash prices. However, that is not expected as the market seems to be balanced. Milk production is sufficient for bottling and manufacturing needs. Lower milk receipts have increased spot milk prices but have not tightened supply. USDA will release the June Milk Production report this afternoon. It is expected to show higher milk production than a year ago. I estimate milk production to be 1.5% higher than June 2024. I estimate cow numbers have increased by 3,000 head from May. The June Cold Storage report will be released on Friday.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have been holding but have not had sufficient buying interest to push prices higher. Blocks had unfilled bids under the market on Monday, with buyers unwilling to increase those bids to accomplish business. The market seems to be balanced with little reason for prices to increase.

BUTTER:

Butter has not been able to find a bottom as buyers have sufficient supply. They are willing to buy, but at lower prices. A significant amount of butter was purchased earlier and stored when the price was lower. This may limit the need for buyers to be aggressive later in the year. Manufacturers will continue to offer butter on the spot market to limit inventory build at the plant level.




Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Milk Production Jumps 3.3%

OVERVIEW: Class III futures were lower throughout much of Tuesday but came under further pressure after USDA released the June Milk ...