Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Agricultural Prices Report Indicate a Better Income Over Feed Price

OVERVIEW:

Most Class III futures contracts closed higher. Class IV futures were steady to lower. The June Agricultural Prices report showed a lower corn price and a higher hay price. The All-milk price remained unchanged.

MILK:

Class III milk futures bounced a bit today, but it seemed to be the result of profit-taking rather than a change in trend or trader attitude. Traders remain skeptical of the upside price potential of the market. Now that the calendar will turn to August, preparations will begin for the start of another school year later in the month. Milk production has decreased due to the weather, but remains higher than a year ago, eliminating any concern over tighter supplies through the rest of the year. Spot milk prices this week are reported to range from $3.00 below class to $2.00 above class.

USDA released the June Agricultural Prices report. The average price for corn was $4.47, down $0.18 per bushel from May and down a penny from June 2024. The premium/supreme hay price was $201.00 per ton, $16.00 per ton from May, but down $51.00 per ton from June 2024. The All-milk price was $21.30 per cwt, the same as it was in May. This compares to $22.80 per cwt in June 2024. The average soybean meal price used in the calculation of income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program will not be released until Friday morning. The soybean meal price is expected to be lower than it was in May. The income over feed price is expected to be higher than it was in May.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.60
6 Month:	$17.81
9 Month:	$17.81
12 Month:	$17.86

CHEESE:

Domestic demand for cheese is lighter than usual and lighter than expected for this time of year. Cheese supplies are not overwhelming the market, with most cheese being absorbed by contractual demand. The current market fundamentals do not suggest any tightening of supplies. Cheese production is strong, utilizing the available milk supply.

BUTTER:

Butter production schedules are mixed with cream supplies lighter than they have been. There are some reports that ice cream production is slowing, but production will remain strong through August. Butterfat levels in milk continue to remain higher than a year ago. Spot cream prices are higher, with some plants having difficulty finding available loads. Some have loads available but are unwilling to pay the increased cream prices.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 1.50 cents per bushel at $4.1375, November soybeans closed down 6.50 cents at $9.8925 and December soybean meal closed up $1.50 per ton at $276.00. September Chicago wheat closed down .50 cent at $5.2325. October live cattle closed down $6.58 at $223.15. September crude oil is down $0.63 per barrel at $69.37. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 330 points at 44,131, with the NASDAQ down 7 points at 21,122.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Class III Futures Show Minor Strength

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	6 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.30 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$4.35 Lower
DOW JONES:	108 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	105 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.90 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased a penny, closing at $1.6825 with no loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.68 with no loads traded. There were four unfilled bids for loads of blocks remaining at the close with no uncovered offers. There was an unfilled bid and an uncovered offer remaining at the close, with no interest in moving prices to accomplish business. The dry whey price remained steady at 53.25 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are one cent lower to 26 cents higher. The butter price remained unchanged at $2.4725 with no loads traded. There was an uncovered offer posted at $2.48 with no buyers showing up to do any business. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.29 with two loads traded. Class IV futures have only shown trading activity in the February contract at 15 cents lower. Butter futures are 1.00 cent lower to 1.82 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.07 to 0.50 cent lower. Cheese futures are 0.40 cent lower to 2.30 cents higher.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 31

Milk production in California is lighter. Handlers indicate hotter temperatures this month compared to last month negatively impacted milk production. However, some processors report milk intakes to be above anticipated volumes. Handlers convey year over year milk output is comfortably up for July 2025. Central Valley manufacturers describe milk volumes as balanced. Stakeholders convey spot loads sold at flat Class pricing and were mainly offered to buyers due to unplanned downtime at some processors. 

In Arizona, farm level milk output is lighter. Handlers report July 2025 year over year milk production is up. 

Milk production is seasonally lighter in New Mexico. 

In the Pacific Northwest farm level milk output varies from steady to lighter. Handlers indicate fat components in milk are considerably down. Processors note milk intakes are at anticipated volumes. Some manufacturers are purchasing additional cream volumes due to fat components of milk being down. 

Milk production in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado varies from steady to lighter. Manufacturers in the mountain states describe milk volumes as balanced or somewhat heavy. Demands for all classes are steady throughout the West region. 

Cream demand is stronger, while cream volumes are generally tighter. Cream multiples moved slightly higher for the top end of both ranges. Condensed skim milk availability is looser mainly due to downtime at some processing plants in the region. Demand for condensed skim milk is unchanged this week. Stakeholders note condensed skim milk sales are down to 20 cents below Class prices.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Higher Prices Remain Elusive

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Traders showed no interest in supporting the Class III market on Wednesday despite the increase in cheese prices. After the large price decline in cheese during June, the market has shown little strength. The counterseasonal movement has traders cautious over the upside price potential of the market. Higher milk production ensures a sufficient supply of milk for bottling and manufacturing. There is no concern regarding the milk supply or the availability of dairy products in the market. USDA will release the June Agricultural Prices report today. This provides most of the prices used in calculating the income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are having a difficult time establishing a seasonal trend higher. Cheese production remains strong due to plentiful milk supplies. Sellers continue to offer cheese to the spot market, keeping buyers satisfied without having to chase the market higher. This is expected to continue.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain choppy as supply is sufficient for demand. Buyers had been able to purchase significant volumes of butter earlier in the year, which may leave them less aggressive in the second half of the year.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - July Class Milk Prices Fall From A Year Ago

OVERVIEW:

Milk futures generally close lower for both Class III and Class IV contracts. The weakness in Class IV futures is understandable due to the decline in the butter price. However, Class III futures showed weakness despite the strength in cheese prices. USDA released the July Federal Order class prices.

MILK:

Class III futures were under pressure again, with the October contract making new lows. If the current fundamentals persist, later contracts will continue to erode as time unfolds, and the premium is taken from futures contracts. The August contract held just above $17.00 today, with the low being $17.01. The butter price declined today, putting some pressure on Class IV futures. Class IV prices have not been quite as bearish, but they indicate traders are not anticipating significant strength throughout the rest of the year. The USDA released the July Federal Order class prices today, with all categories lower than the previous year. The Class II price is $19.31, up $0.88 from June but down $2.51 from July 2024. The Class III price is $17.32, down $1.50 from June and down $2.47 from a year ago. The Class IV price is $18.89, up $0.59 from June, but down $2.42 from July 2024. The USDA will release the June Agricultural Prices report on Thursday, providing the average prices used in the calculation of the income over feed for the month.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.44
6 Month:	$17.71
9 Month:	$17.74
12 Month:	$17.80

CHEESE:

Milk production has been impacted by hot weather, but at the same time, it remains higher than a year ago. Spot milk is still available below class, with spot milk prices ranging from $3.00 below class to $1.00 over class. Some plants see lower milk receipts and tightening milk supplies but are unwilling to pay for spot milk that is priced above class. They opt to reduce manufacturing schedules for the time being. Most plants continue to operate on full schedules, as milk production remains strong and orders need to be filled.

BUTTER:

The decline in the butter price today renews a negative tone in the market. The longer the price is unable to trend higher, the less chance there is for the price to reach $3.00 before the usual price peak in October. Manufacturers continue to move supply to the spot market rather than hold onto it. They see limited upside price potential.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 1.25 cents per bushel at $4.1225, November soybeans closed down 13.75 cents at $9.9575 and December soybean meal closed down $2.00 per ton at $274.50. September Chicago wheat closed down 6.00 cents at $5.2375. October live cattle closed up $3.28 at $229.73. September crude oil is up $1.09 per barrel at $70.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 172 points at 44,461, with the NASDAQ up 31 points at 21,130.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Update - Butter Drops Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Higher
SOYBEANS:	11 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.50 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$2.02 Higher
DOW JONES:	9 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	89 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.17 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.50 cent, closing at $1.6725 with 15 loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 4.50 cents, closing at $1.68 with no loads traded. The dry whey price decreased by 0.75 cent, closing at 53.25 cents with five loads traded. Class III futures are 19 cents lower to 2 cents higher. Traders are focused on the volume of blocks traded rather than the increase in price. Sellers remain willing to offer loads to the market, which may indicate there is sufficient supply limiting upside price potential. The butter price declined 3 cents, closing at $2.4725 with four loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.50 cent with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 10 to 17 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.50 to 5.47 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.10 to 1.50 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.50 cent lower to 0.40 cent higher. USDA will release the July Federal Order class price today.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Remain Under Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

The pressure on Class III milk futures despite the increase in the barrel cheese price does not bode well for market strength. Traders retain a bearish attitude as cash prices continue to chop around. The supply and demand balance is such that buyers and sellers remain comfortable at the current prices. Lower prices are not likely to increase culling and decrease milk production. The industry is in a different posture than it was a few years ago when culling was a means to supplement income when milk prices were low. That is not the case now, as substantial income comes from beef on dairy calves, reducing the need to cull heavily. Milk prices will need to decrease further to increase the need to cull dairy cattle. USDA will release the July Federal order class prices today. The trade is expecting a Class III price of $17.29 and a Class IV price of $18.91.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy. There is little reason for the market to trend higher as it usually does this time of year. Buyers are comfortable with supplies, leaving much of the buying being done on an as-needed basis. A decline in prices provides the opportunity for buyers to increase ownership for later demand.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to increase as the summer progresses, but the upside potential may not be substantial. Even though butter inventory is 6% below a year ago, there remains sufficient supply for demand. Churning has decreased but continues to remain active. Buyers have little concern over supply.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fluid Milk Sales Decline 0.9%

OVERVIEW:

Class III milk futures reversed Monday's gains and then some as traders showed no support from the higher barrel cheese price. Fluid milk sales declined 0.9% in May, continuing the trend of lower fluid consumption.

MILK:

An increase in the barrel cheese price should have provided support for the market, but it was not enough to override the volume of blocks trading without the price increasing. Traders do not seem to like steady spot prices on the idea that it indicates limited price potential. The August contract is again moving closer to the $17.00 price level and hopefully will remain above that level.

Fluid milk consumption continues to decline, with fluid milk sales in May at 0.9% below May 2024. Conventional whole milk sales increased 2.1%; flavored whole milk increased 6.3%; reduced-fat fat decreased 2.7%; low-fat milk decreased 5.5%; fat-free skim milk decreased 5.3%; flavored fat-reduced milk decreased 8.8%; buttermilk decreased 2.0%, with other fluid milk production sales increasing 17.8%. Organic whole milk sales increased 0.9%; organic flavored whole milk increased 3.5%; organic reduced-fat milk sales decreased 6.2%; organic low-fat milk fell 20.3%; organic fat-free skim increased 4.4%; organic flavored fat-reduced milk fell 35.2%, with other organic fluid milk products falling 46.1%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.50
6 Month:	$17.72
9 Month:	$17.74
12 Month:	$17.79

CHEESE:

At least the block cheese price held despite 13 loads being traded. The buyers could have stepped back to see if the price was going to weaken, but such was not the case. The buyers took advantage of the loads being offered without having to chase the market higher. Cheese production remains strong as milk production is higher than a year ago. There are some locations indicating tighter milk supplies, which is reflected in spot milk prices. However, milk is available and can be obtained without difficulty.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to increase seasonally, but the increase may be minimal under the current fundamentals. Cream supplies are not as abundant as they have been, but remain sufficient for production to meet demand. Some butter manufacturers are selling cream due to higher prices rather than churning. The production of other Class II products is utilizing large volumes of cream.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 3.00 cents per bushel at $4.1100, November soybeans closed down 2.00 cents at $10.0950 and December soybean meal closed down $2.80 per ton at $276.50. September Chicago wheat closed down 8.75 cents at $5.2975. October live cattle closed up $1.68 at $226.45. September crude oil is up $2.50 per barrel at $69.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 205 points at 44,633, with the NASDAQ down 80 points at 21,098.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Traders Maintain a Bearish Attitude

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	4 Lower
SOYBEANS:	8 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.40 Higher
DOW JONES:	126 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	19 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.07 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6675 with 13 loads traded. The buyers who placed bids on Monday and did not raise those bids purchased today to get business done. They paid more but did not push the market higher. Sellers were willing to move cheese at Monday's price rather than hold back to see if buyers would be more aggressive. This does not bode well for upside price potential. The barrel cheese price increased a penny, closing at $1.6350 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 54.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 31 cents lower to 9 cents higher. The butter price increased 0.25 cent, closing at $2.5025 with three loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 0.75 cent, closing at $1.2850 with two loads traded. Class IV futures have only had the April contract traded at no change in price. Butter futures are 1.25 cents lower to 0.75 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.52 cent lower to 0.35 cent higher.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Look for Further Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures found support from the increase in block cheese and butter. It is difficult to determine how much strength will be seen in the underlying cash as the supply of milk and dairy products remains sufficient for demand. Traders did not receive much indication from the milk production and cold storage reports last week to indicate any tightening of the supply. Domestic demand needs to improve, or the supply of cheese could increase counter seasonally. The current fundamentals suggest the market may remain in a range with limited upside potential.

CHEESE:

The unfilled bids for blocks remaining at the close of spot trading on Monday would suggest the price might increase today if those buyers need to be aggressive to fill demand. Sellers may hold back to see if the buyers are going to be more aggressive. If so, they will hold back and sell at higher prices. In general, the market seems to be balanced.

BUTTER:

The increase in the butter price over the past two days was welcomed, but the rebound may be limited. Butter inventory below a year ago provides support to the market, but steady to lighter demand may limit the seasonal decline.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Positive Day for the Market With Limited Support

OVERVIEW:

Both Class III and Class IV futures showed some nice gains in response to stronger cheese and butter prices. The June Cold Storage report did not show any significant change in inventory or trend. There was good buying interest under the market, but only one buyer was willing to bid higher to obtain a load of cheese.

MILK:

It was good to see some strength in milk futures after the bearish milk production report on the neutral cold storage report. Buyers will be cautious about upside price potential as the market fundamentals have not turned bullish. If anything, they have become more bearish as milk production, cow numbers, and milk per cow continue to improve. It would be nice to see better fundamentals in the market, but with demand as it is and supply as it is, there is little to provide any concern in the market. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report released on Friday showed a record low heifer-to-milk cow ratio compared to July 2023. However, cow numbers have increased over the past two years despite a declining heifer supply.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.50
6 Month:	$17.89
9 Month:	$17.85
12 Month:	$17.87

CHEESE:

The strength in the block cheese price was the result of a buyer being more aggressive and likely needing to obtain a load of cheese to fill orders. There were nine unfilled bids below the market, but those buyers were not willing to bid higher to obtain any cheese. Only one seller showed up to do business, but more might have offered cheese if the price had increased.

BUTTER:

The butter price has had a nice rebound, which might be limited due to steady to lighter retail demand and lower demand from the food service industry than a year ago. It may be difficult for butter to remain the losses it has had over the past two weeks, but a further retracement is possible.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 5.00 cents per bushel at $4.1400, November soybeans closed down 9.50 cents at $10.1150 and December soybean meal closed down $2.30 per ton at $279.30. September Chicago wheat closed up .25 cent at $5.3850. October live cattle closed up $1.63 at $224.78. September crude oil is up $1.83 per barrel at $66.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 64 points at 44,838, with the NASDAQ up 70 points at 21,179.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese and Butter Prices Increase

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Lower
SOYBEANS:	8 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.20 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.30 Higher
DOW JONES:	87 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	44 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.27 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 2.75 cents, closing at $1.6675 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price remained steady at $1.6250 with no loads traded. There were nine unfilled bids remaining at the close of spot trading with no offers for blocks. No one showed up to do any business in barrels. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 54.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are ranging from 1 to 20 cents higher. Futures were higher overnight, but then showed weakness ahead of spot trading before moving higher again. The butter price increased 3.50 cents, closing at $2.50 with two loads traded. The increasing price is bringing buyers in from the sidelines to purchase before the price increases further. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.50 cent, closing at $1.2925 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are steady to 21 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.25 cent lower to 3.95 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.25 cent lower to 0.25 cent higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Post Strong Overnight Gains

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	10 to 20 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	5 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$0.50 to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

The June Cold Storage report was neutral and may not provide much support to the market. However, Class III milk futures show double-digit gains overnight, possibly due to the market being oversold. The July Cattle Inventory report did not show anything to move the market one way or the other. The only positive aspect of the inventory report was that the ratio of milk replacement heifers to milk cows is historically low. However, that is offset by increased cow numbers. Much of the movement in milk futures is likely traders trying to outguess and scalp the market for some profit.

CHEESE:

The American cheese inventory and the total cheese inventory are nearly at the same level as a year ago. The first five months of this year showed inventories below a year ago. Inventory generally increases during the first half of the year. There is concern that this could continue into the second half of the year due to strong milk production.

BUTTER:

The inventory of butter is 6% below a year ago, but that has not been able to support the market. Slower domestic demand and steady butter production keep supply available. Reduced churning as some plants opt to sell cream at the current higher prices may have some impact on the market, but the upside potential might be limited.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - July Milk Cow Inventory Highest Since 1995

OVERVIEW:

Class III futures closed mixed, while Class IV contracts showed no trading activity throughout the day. The June Livestock Slaughter report showed slaughter declining from May but slightly higher than a year ago.

MILK:

Class III milk futures did not have a good week, making new contract lows before finding minor support at the end. The few days of steady cheese prices were thought to be the low for a while, but it was only a pause in a bearish market. Class III futures in the fourth quarter are the only contracts remaining above $18.00. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report was released and showed dairy cattle inventory 1% above July 2023, totaling 9.45 million head. This is the highest inventory of milk cows for the July inventory report since July 1995 and the highest milk cow inventory number for the bi-annual report since the same year. Milk replacement heifers totaled 3.50 million head, unchanged from July 2023. The percentage of heifers to milk cows is 37%. This is the lowest percentage of heifers to milk cows since 1993, when I began recording it. It is not surprising to see a lower ratio, but it is surprising to see that the number of replacement heifers remained steady with two years ago. Heifer prices have increased substantially over the past two years. This is considered a bearish report.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.35
6 Month:	$17.77
9 Month:	$17.77
12 Month:	$17.82

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks decreased 0.25 cent with nine loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6425. Barrels decreased 3.50 cents with seven loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6530. Dry whey decreased by 1.75 cents with 13 loads traded. The weekly average price is 54.25 cents. American cheese inventory declined by 2.6 million pounds for May, totaling 805.1 million pounds. Inventory is slightly higher than in June 2024. Swiss cheese inventory increased by 199,000 pounds from May, totaling 23.0 million pounds and 3% above a year ago. Other cheese inventories increased 5.0 million pounds from the previous month, totaling 584.1 million pounds. This is 2% below that of a year ago. Total cheese inventory increased to 1.412 billion pounds and 2.6 million pounds above May and slightly below June 2024.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter decreased 4.75 cents with 14 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 0.25 cent with 21 loads traded. Butter inventory in June was 10.2 million pounds below May, totaling 354.5 million pounds. This was 6% below June 2024. This is considered neutral to the market.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 1.75 cents per bushel at $4.1900, November soybeans closed down 3.25 cents at $10.2100 and December soybean meal closed down $1.50 per ton at $281.60. September Chicago wheat closed down 3.25 cents at $5.3825. October live cattle closed up $1.00 at $223.15. September crude oil is down $0.87 per barrel at $65.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 208 points at 44,902, with the NASDAQ up 50 points at 21,108.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Continue to Decline

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Lower
SOYBEANS:	6 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.60 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.62 Higher
DOW JONES:	185 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	82 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.89 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 0.50 cent, closing at $1.64 with eight loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 3.50 cents, closing at $1.6250 with seven loads traded. Steady cheese prices for a few days did not indicate the market found support, but a pause in the weakness. There were three unfilled bids for loads of blocks and one unfilled bid for a load of barrels remaining at the close. The dry whey price gained 1.50 cents, closing at 54.00 cents with six loads traded. Class III futures are holding well with contracts 6 cents lower to 7 cents higher. The butter price gained 4.50 cents, closing at $2.4650 with two loads traded. There were 10 unfilled bids for loads of butter and one uncovered offer remaining at the close. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.2875 with no loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. USDA will release the June Cold Storage and the bi-annual Cattle Inventory report this afternoon.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Buyer Support Remains Elusive

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

The bearish milk production report continues to linger, keeping a cloud over the market. USDA will release the June Cold Storage report this afternoon, which could provide some positive numbers with lower cheese and butter inventories compared to a year ago. However, that may not be enough to change the bearish attitude prevalent in the market. June dairy cattle slaughter declined from the previous month, and increasing cow numbers will ensure sufficient milk will be available for bottling and manufacturing needs. It may be difficult for milk prices to rebound unless there is a significant increase in demand.

CHEESE:

The minor increase in the block cheese price on Thursday provides a glimmer of hope that cheese prices may have found a bottom. However, buyers may not be aggressive as they feel comfortable with supplies. Strong milk production is expected to keep cheese production above a year ago.

BUTTER:

The butter price may have limited upside potential. Churning is not quite as active as it had been due to increased demand from Class II product manufacturers and a decline in the butterfat content in the milk. The price should increase as seasonal buying improves. However, buyers have been able to purchase butter and store it for later use, reducing the need to be aggressive.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Dairy Cattle Slaughter Above a Year Ago

OVERVIEW:

Class III futures closed mixed, while Class IV contracts showed no trading activity throughout the day. The June Livestock Slaughter report showed slaughter declining from May but slightly higher than a year ago.

MILK:

Trading activity was moderate in Class III futures, with greater activity in the nearby contracts as usual. Class IV futures showed no trading activity throughout the day. The minor increase in the block cheese price had little impact on milk futures. Traders supported contracts through the rest of the year because futures were overdone to the downside. The June Livestock Slaughter report was released, showing dairy cattle slaughter totaling 188,800 head. This was 7,900 head lower than May, but 2,400 head more than a year ago. This was the first time slaughter exceeded the previous year after 21 consecutive months of reduced slaughter. Though slaughter was higher than a year ago, the amount of dairy cattle slaughtered was historically low. Except for June 2024, the last time slaughter was below 190,000 head was in June 2008. The biannual Cattle Inventory report will be released on Friday Afternoon. The estimate for the inventory of milk cows on July 1 is 100.5% above two years ago. It will be compared to two years ago due to the report not being available last year. Interestingly, the number of milk replacement heifers is estimated to be 100.6% above a year ago.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.38
6 Month:	$17.78
9 Month:	$17.77
12 Month:	$17.83

CHEESE:

The minor increase in the block cheese price had little influence on the market. Traders will need to see further strength before they become more aggressive buyers. Even with that, the market will need to prove itself as milk production is significantly above a year ago. Demand will need to improve significantly the rest of the year to utilize the higher production of cheese and support prices. That seems like a tall order under the present market conditions.

BUTTER:

The butter price held today, but it is uncertain whether the weakness has run its course, and buyers will step up more aggressively or whether they will remain on the sidelines and purchase only on price weakness. The USDA will release the June Cold Storage report on Friday. Butter inventory is expected to be lower than a year ago but is not expected to be bullish for the market.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 3.25 cents per bushel at $4.2075, November soybeans closed up 1.50 cents at $10.2425 and December soybean meal closed down $2.50 per ton at $283.10. September Chicago wheat closed up 1.00 cent at $5.4150. October live cattle closed down $1.35 at $222.15. September crude oil is up $0.91 per barrel at $66.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 316 points at 44,694, with the NASDAQ up 38 points at 21,058.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Update - Block Cheese Shows Minor Strength

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	4 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.52 Lower
DOW JONES:	191 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	80.72 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.20 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.25 cent, closing at $1.6450 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.66 with no loads traded. There were three unfilled bids and five uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. The dry whey price declined 1.25 cents, closing at 53.50 cents with six loads traded. The weakness of dry whey offset the increase in blocks, reducing the price calculation for the day. Class III futures are 6 cents lower to 16 cents higher with strength in the nearby months. The butter price remained unchanged at $2.42 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.75 cent, closing $1.2875 with eight loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.90 cent lower to 3.10 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 1.00 cents lower to 1.00 cents higher. The June Livestock Slaughter report will be released today, showing the amount of dairy cattle slaughter during the month.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 30

Milk production in California is seasonally lighter. Handlers convey year-over-year milk production is up for July 2025. Some manufacturers report milk intakes are above anticipated volumes. Some plant downtime for maintenance is taking place. All Class demands are steady. According to the California Department of Water Resources, as of July 22, 2025, the state has received 21.80 inches of precipitation for the current 2024-25 Water Year, which is 1.13 inches below the historical mean. 

Farm level milk output in Arizona is declining at seasonally anticipated paces for the summer. Handlers note higher year-over-year milk production continues to hold up. 

Milk production is lighter in New Mexico. All Class manufacturing demands are steady. 

Farm level milk output in the Pacific Northwest is lighter. Fat components in milk output are decreasing. Manufacturers note milk intakes are at anticipated volumes, but cream volumes are decreasing. Some manufacturers are not fully offsetting decreased cream volumes with spot cream purchases. Class I, II, III, and IV demands are steady. 

Milk production in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado is lighter. Idaho manufacturers indicate there is plenty of milk to meet needs, despite seasonally lower milk output. Demands for Class I, II, III, and IV are steady throughout the West region. 

Cream volumes are generally tighter and demand for cream is stronger. Cream multiples moved higher for the bottom end of both ranges. Condensed skim milk availability is somewhat tighter and demand is steady.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Find Some Stability

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$0.50 to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures took a beating on Wednesday as traders reacted to the bearish milk production report. The underlying cash cheese prices held steady, but dry whey declined, adding to the negativity. Butter fell to a two-month low, pressuring Class IV futures. The liquidation may have run its course with some traders buying into the market in anticipation that it is overdone to the downside. Continued strong milk production will assure a sufficient supply of milk. This may keep milk prices low throughout the rest of the year. USDA will release the June Livestock Slaughter report this afternoon, which is expected to show lower dairy cattle slaughter for the month.

CHEESE:

It is uncertain whether cheese prices will find support as prices have held steady over the past days. The buyers and sellers have not been aggressive, potentially indicating the market is balanced. Even if cheese prices increase, the upside may be limited as sufficient milk is available for manufacturing.

BUTTER:

The weakness of butter keeps buyers unaggressive and willing to wait for lower prices before purchasing more supply. The low price will keep U.S. butter competitive on the world market. This will result in continued strong exports. Domestic demand is steady overall.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Take A Beating

OVERVIEW:

It was a very difficult day for dairy futures contracts. Selling pressure was rampant as liquidation erupted due to the bearish implications of the milk production report. Steady cheese prices did nothing to stem the bearish sentiment.

MILK:

The August and September Class III futures contracts made new lows today. The low in August was $17.07 and did not close much higher than that level. Class IV contracts fell substantially through the mid-point of 2026 as traders are disillusioned with the potential for stronger butter prices. The milk production report was bearish as farmers continue to hold onto cows and push milk production. The number of dairy cows in the nation's herd in June totaled 9,469 million head. This is the highest number of cows since July 2021. The state with the largest production increase was Kansas, with an increase of 19.0% over June 2024. South Dakota followed with a gain of 11.5%. Lower milk prices have not been able to accomplish the task of reducing supply. The increase in cow numbers has been propelled by high heifer prices and the income received from beef on dairy calves. The semi-annual cattle inventory report will be released on Friday, showing the level of milk cows and milk replacement heifers on July1. This will provide the ratio of heifers to cows. The USDA will release the June Livestock Slaughter report on Thursday, which will show the number of dairy cattle slaughtered for the month.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.29
6 Month:	$17.75
9 Month:	$17.76
12 Month:	$17.82

CHEESE:

June milk production was 3.3% higher than June 2024; however, that may change when July milk production is recorded. Milk production has been impacted by high temperatures during July, which has reduced milk receipts at the plant level. However, production will be compared to July 2024 when times of hot weather were also prevalent. Milk output is expected to remain above a year ago throughout the rest of the year.

BUTTER:

The butter price has fallen further than anticipated. Buyers continue to hold back on the weakness and are buying on the way down. Sellers continue to offer supply to the market rather than holding and building inventory. It seems ironic that international demand and prices are very strong with supply shortages in some countries, but the U.S. price continues to decline.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down .50 cent per bushel at $4.1750, November soybeans closed down 2.75 cents at $10.2275 and December soybean meal closed down $1.20 per ton at $285.60. September Chicago wheat closed down 9.00 cents at $5.4050. August live cattle closed up $2.05 at $227.03. September crude oil is down $0.06 per barrel at $65.25. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 508 points at 45,010 with the NASDAQ up 127 points at 21,020.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures Show Substantial Losses

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Lower
SOYBEANS:	4 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.90 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.55 Higher
DOW JONES:	383 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	46 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.21 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Both blocks and barrels remained unchanged at $1.6425 and $1.66, respectively. No loads were traded with limited interest in doing business. The dry whey price declined a penny, closing at 53.75 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures were under substantial pressure before spot trading and have seen further weakness after trading concluded. Class III futures are steady to 60 cents lower. The butter price declined 5.75 cents, closing at $2.42 with three loads traded. This is the lowest price in two months. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 2.25 cents, closing at $1.28 with four loads traded. Class IV futures have only had activity in the October contract with the price down 40 cents. Butter futures are down 0.50 to 6.72 cents. Dry whey futures are steady to 1.50 cents lower. There may be a limit to the weakness of milk futures if underlying cash prices are able to hold at the current levels. The June Milk Production report has increased the bearishness of the market.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Futures Reflect the Bearish June Milk Production Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	15 to 25 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	10 to 15 Lower
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	6 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

June milk production jumped 3.3%, exceeding expectations. The further increase in cow numbers was about as expected, but production per cow exceeded expectations. The impact of bird flu seems to be a thing of the past as milk production continues to increase. Tight heifer supplies and high prices have not impacted the market as expected. Expansions continue to take place and cow numbers are increasing. The surprising aspect is the increase in milk production per cow, as cows that normally would have been culled are exhibiting increased milk production during the next lactation. The growth in milk production this year and the strong increase in June provide a bearish outlook for milk prices.

CHEESE:

Cheese production has been holding steady as the milk supply leaves sufficient available for manufacturing. Demand has not increased as anticipated with buyers complacent as cheese is readily available. The bearish implications of the milk production report will keep buyers sidelined, with buying confined to current needs. Buying for later demand will be done on price weakness.

BUTTER:

The butter price has been trending lower with the price reaching the lowest level since May 30. Some plants are operating on reduced schedules as the cream supply has tightened. Cream prices have increased with spot loads less available. However, steady retail demand and reduced food service demand leave sufficient butter available to the market.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Milk Production Jumps 3.3%

OVERVIEW:

Class III futures were lower throughout much of Tuesday but came under further pressure after USDA released the June Milk Production report. June milk production was 3.3% higher than June 2024 in the country. Cow numbers were 4,000 head more than May. This is a bearish report.

MILK:

Milk futures were under pressure throughout Tuesday with traders not liking the steady cheese prices and the decline of dry whey. Traders do not feel the need to buy futures for the long term. Increased selling pressure was put on futures after the release of the bearish June Milk Production report. Milk production in the top 24 states totaled 18.5 billion pounds, up 3.4% from June 2024. USDA revised May milk production up 0.7% to an increase of 2.4% compared to what was reported last month. That is a huge revision and makes the increase of 3.4% in June that much more bearish. Milk production per cow totaled 2,045 pounds, up 33 pounds from June 2024. Cow numbers increased by 3,000 head from May, totaling 9.03 million head. U.S. milk production increased 3.3% from a year earlier, totaling 19.233 billion pounds. Milk production per cow was 33 pounds higher than a year earlier at 2,031 pounds. Cow numbers increased by 4,000 head from May, totaling 9.469 million heads. April through June milk production was 2.4% above the same period a year ago. There were only three of the top 24 states that showed a milk production decline. Those states were Washington with a decline of 9.4%, Oregon was down 1.9%, and Pennsylvania was down 0.2%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.44
6 Month:	$17.86
9 Month:	$17.87
12 Month:	$17.91

CHEESE:

It may not have been that cheese prices remained steady again Tuesday that was bearish in the market, but the fact that prices were not able to increase. The weakness of dry whey added to the negativity. With milk production increasing to the extent that it is, cheese prices will have a difficult time moving much higher.

BUTTER:

The weakness of butter recently seems to have been a forerunner of the bearish June Milk Production report. There is plenty of milk available for manufacturing. There had been reports that milk receipts had been decreasing, and there was some concern for tighter milk supplies. That is not the case, with milk production increasing rather than decreasing. Cream supplies have declined, but there is sufficient product for needs.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 4.50 cents per bushel at $4.1750, November soybeans closed unchanged at $10.2600 and December soybean meal closed up $2.10 per ton at $286.90. September Chicago wheat closed up 7.25 cents at $5.4950. August live cattle closed down $0.32 at $224.90. September crude oil is down $0.50 per barrel at $65.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 179 points at 44,502, with the NASDAQ down 81 points at 20,893.

April-June Milk Production up 2.4 Percent

June Milk Production up 3.4 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during June totaled 18.5 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent from June 2024. May revised production, at 19.3 billion pounds, was up 2.4 percent from May 2024. The May revision represented an increase of 136 million pounds or 0.7 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,045 pounds for June, 33 pounds above June 2024.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.03 million head, 151,000 head more than June 2024, and 3,000 head more than May 2025.   

April-June Milk Production up 2.4 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during the April - June quarter totaled 58.7 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from the April - June quarter last year.  The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.46 million head, 56,000 head more than the January - March quarter, and 127,000 head more than the same period last year.