Monday, June 16, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Trade Points to Lower Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:3 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:Mixed
Butter Futures:Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures:2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:$3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures:5 to 6 Lower

MILK:

The bearish environment continued in overnight trade and may continue today unless buyers become aggressive at the lower prices of cheese and decide to increase ownership for later demand. Otherwise, there is little for traders to get excited over as cheese prices struggle. There is little indication of hot weather impacting milk production in most areas. Production remains above a year ago and is expected to continue that way for the foreseeable future. The current milk prices will not deter maintaining or adding cow numbers and increasing production per cow. Traders are expected to be cautious ahead of spot trading. They will wait for underlying cash to provide direction.

CHEESE:

Increased cheese output is being reflected in the spot market as cheese prices have not found support. Cheese demand has improved at the retail level, but increased cheese output leaves sufficient available for buyers. The lower cheese prices should garner buyer interest.

BUTTER:

The price moved to the highest level in five months as buyers have remained aggressive despite sellers offering a lot of loads. Last week, there were 135 loads traded on the spot market. Strength is expected to continue due to increased demand and a seasonal price increase. The market seems to be following a similar pattern to 2023.



Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Raises Estimated Milk Production

OVERVIEW: Class III milk futures held up well despite the further decline of cheese prices. Class IV futures showed little trading a...