Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Find Stability

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 6 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures are finding some stability due to the choppy action of the underlying cash. It is uncertain whether underlying cash prices will hold at the current level and move higher as the summer progresses and buyers prepare for later demand or whether milk production will increase, keeping prices suppressed for an extended period. The April Milk Production report will be released Wednesday and indicate what we may see as the year progresses. I estimate milk production to be 0.8% above a year ago and cow numbers up 4,000 head from March. The better price outlook has likely increased the desire of farms to keep stalls full and push milk production.

CHEESE:

Cheese demand will need to improve to keep supply from building. Cheese production is increasing as more milk moves to manufacturing as schools close for the summer. Buyers may not be quite as active as they had been as the supply of cheese remains readily available. Prices may need to decline somewhat to stimulate buying interest for demand later in the year.

BUTTER:

There is not much to be said about butter, as supply and demand seem to be balanced. Churning remains active with butter inventory higher than a year ago. Buyers purchased quite a bit of butter earlier at lower prices for later demand. This may leave them less aggressive later in the year. The price is expected to remain sideways.





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