Monday, May 12, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Futures Show Weakness Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 4 lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 16 to 20 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

MILK:

The weakness in Class III milk futures may continue unless underlying cash prices provide support. There is little reason for traders to be overly bullish on the market as milk production continues to increase and bottling demand for school accounts decreases. More milk is moving to manufacturing, keeping a sufficient supply of manufactured products available for demand. Higher cow numbers and increased milk production per cow leave end users unconcerned over supply. U.S. and Chinese representatives have been meeting in Geneva over the past few days over trade. It is reported that the talks have been positive and will hopefully reduce some of the tensions and tariffs that have been imposed. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report this morning, providing USDA's estimates on milk production, milk prices and dairy product prices. The report will show the initial estimates for 2026 production and prices.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices could go either way after the activity last week. It may be difficult for prices to resume the uptrend near term. Cheese production is increasing as more milk moves to manufacturing. Inventory is building but remains below year-ago levels.

BUTTER:

The butter price may remain sideways for the near term. Retail demand is termed as steady to improving, while food service demand is lower than a year ago. This may change and trend higher, similar to what it did in 2023 when the price began to increase in June and moved to a record high.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Milk Production Increased 3.7%

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