Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Remain Sidelined

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

MILK:

The limited volatility keeps traders sidelined as they see little potential to scalp the market for a profit intraday or daily basis. Day traders thrive on volatility and without that -- they limit trading activity. Surprisingly, the market has settled significantly from the volatility we had seen for quite some time. Underlying cash prices are comfortable at current prices with buyers and sellers doing business as needed with little reason to be aggressive one way or the other. Milk production remains below a year ago but is sufficient for demand. The hope is for demand to improve as the year progresses but continued high grocery prices may limit demand growth.

CHEESE:

The block cheese price is near the top of the price range it has been since the beginning of the year, while barrels are near the lower end of the range. Buyers and sellers are comfortable doing business at current levels. Buyers are not interested in building inventory while sellers want to limit plant inventory and move it to the market. Political uncertainty may keep upside price potential limited.

BUTTER:

There is more activity in the butter market. Buyers are interested in purchasing supply at these lower levels as they build a cushion as a hedge against the potential for higher prices later in the year. They can purchase butter and freeze it for later consumption. Manufacturers are processing heavy cream supplies and want to sell butter rather than have plant inventories increase. This will keep the price choppy.





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