Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Trader Cautious Over Further Gains

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures rebounded nicely on Monday from the higher cheese prices. Traders are quick to react but are not taking long-term positions. They continue to scalp the market attempting to take a quick profit if they can get one. The jump on Monday did not follow through overnight as some decided to either liquidate positions or sell at higher prices anticipating prices will remain choppy. It will be difficult for futures to regain the losses of the past three weeks without a significant increase in demand and/or a contraction of milk production. Milk production is below a year ago, but increasing seasonally leaving sufficient supply available for demand.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to be choppy. The volatility seems to be decreasing for the time being. The daily price moves have not been quite as dramatic. Current cheese production is sufficient for demand. Inventory began to build in December and should continue for much of the first half of the year.

BUTTER:

A year ago, the butter price was $2.8025 compared to $2.53 currently. Cream supplies were not as abundant as this year and inventory was lower. The price may slowly trend higher but will remain choppy. Price increases will be met will selling as manufacturers want to limit plant inventories.




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