Thursday, January 30, 2025

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese Prices May Have Limited Upside

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Milk futures are expected to remain choppy. The increase in the block cheese price on Wednesday did not get traders excited as it had already been factored into the market. There have been no significant fundamental changes in the market. The supply of milk is sufficient for demand and is expected to remain that way for the near future. Milk output may continue to trend higher as the weather is good for cow comfort and cow numbers are holding. The heifer supply is tight, but some expansions are taking place and are finding cattle but are paying a high price for them. The Bi-annual Cattle Inventory report will be released on Friday and will show the inventory and values of all cattle and calves. The milk cow/heifer ratio is expected to show a near record tightness.

CHEESE:

More trading activity took place in the spot market on Wednesday suggesting the higher prices are increasing the interest of plants to sell supply to limit inventory build. There is sufficient cheese available for demand. Steady demand may keep the upside price potential limited.

BUTTER:

The butter price falling to the lowest level since December 2023 had been unexpected, but not surprising given the abundant supply of cream and active churning schedules. There may be further price weakness, but buyers may be more aggressive to purchase as a hedge against higher prices that may unfold as the year progresses.




Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Drops 3 Cents

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 7 Lower SOYBEANS: 17 Lower SOYBEAN MEAL: ...