Thursday, January 2, 2025

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Light Activity Expected Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: Mixed


MILK:

The new year will not change the market just because the calendar changed. It will change based on the market fundamentals that will unfold and many things will change. Underlying cheese prices were strong through the end of 2024 and may continue to find support. However, prices may be near a threshold, making it difficult to push through early in the year. Bottling demand is increasing as school accounts will be filled as students return to school. This is not expected to tighten the milk supply for manufacturing but will reduce the volume and price of spot milk. Spot milk last week showed stronger prices with discounts reaching $4.00 below class and a vast improvement from the previous week and year. The USDA will release the December Federal Order Class Prices Thursday.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have had a nice increase recently. This may be nearing a price threshold as buyers may become less aggressive if they see reduced demand and sufficient cheese production. The increase in cheese prices has improved the outlook for milk prices early this year. These prices may hold as long as demand remains at the current pace.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to find support near the current level as buyers look ahead to this year and prepare for expected first-quarter demand. The large decline in inventory in November and good demand in December should have inventory near the levels of a year ago.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Gain for The Week

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