Monday, January 27, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cash Uncertainty Will Dominate Early Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 7 to 9 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 3 to 4 Lower

MILK:

It will be difficult for traders to get excited over strength in the market anytime soon. The market will need to prove itself before traders will become bullish again. Even if cheese prices increase, it will initially be met with skepticism as the recent volatility will keep traders cautious. The milk production report did not provide anything for traders to get excited over with milk down about as expected with milk production down only 0.2% for the year. Cow numbers were lower than in November, which may be positive moving forward. However, cow numbers remain higher than a year ago. Traders may not become too excited unless demand improves, and supplies tighten.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain volatile as buyers and sellers take care of business at the desired level. They sell cheese when prices increase and buy when they decrease. But without the need to be aggressive, the volatile price swings will continue.

BUTTER:

The price is expected to remain in a lower range. The increase in inventory in December was moderate, but it did end the year 11% higher than in 2023. This was a surprise as the inventory in November was right in line with the previous year. Strong butter production might increase butter inventory significantly during the first quarter.




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