Friday, January 24, 2025

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production and Cold Storage Reports Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Overnight trade in Class III futures showed some short covering possible ahead of the weekend. However, trading activity was only confined to the February contract. Traders may be cautious ahead of spot trading as the market has been volatile and unpredictable. There are two major reports out Friday. The December Milk Production report will show the milk production level and milk per cow. It will also show the increase or decrease of cows from the previous month. I estimate milk production to be 1.0% below a year ago. I estimate cow numbers to be 1,000 head above November. The December Cold Storage report is expected to show cheese stocks significantly below a year ago. Butter stocks are expected to show an inventory that is slightly higher than that of a year ago.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices bounced back somewhat on Thursday possibly indicating a bottom has been reached. However, traders will need to see continued support before becoming aggressive buyers. There is no indication of tightening supplies or indication of significantly increasing demand.

BUTTER:

The lower butter price has not increased buying interest. Sufficient butter supplies and active churning have left buyers complacent and not willing to purchase more than they need for immediate demand. Manufacturers want to limit the building of inventory. The December Cold Storage report may show butter stocks increased during the month.




December Milk Production down 0.4 percent

December Milk Production down 0.4 percent         Milk production in the 24 major States during December totaled 18.0 billion pounds, down 0...