Monday, December 2, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Trade Expected Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Traders will be uncertain about the market direction and wait until spot trading to indicate price direction. One would think cheese prices are low enough to stimulate increased buying interest. However, there is sufficient supply with demand somewhat less than anticipated moving through the holiday period. Milk production is steady to higher, but not increasing as much as usual for this time of year. This leaves the market rather balanced, and the industry is comfortable. There has been a report of increased bird flu in California with the virus being detected in numerous wastewater testing sites. It is uncertain whether this is of increased concern, but it is being monitored. Milk is safe to drink after it has been pasteurized and it certainly is likely it will not be an issue after the water goes through treatment. The FSA should release the average soybean meal price for October, providing the price for calculating income over feed.

CHEESE:

Cheese has been unable to find support with buyers remaining complacent and purchasing as they need to fill orders. Manufacturers continue to offer cheese to the spot market to keep from building inventory. Even though American cheese production has been below a year ago, demand has been slower leaving the market in a bearish posture.

BUTTER:

The minor bounce of the butter price on Wednesday does not indicate the market has found a bottom. Higher inventory and strong butter production may put further pressure on the price. If the price falls below $2.46, it will move to levels last seen in June 2023.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - 2024 Milk Production Lower, But Herd Size Growing

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