Thursday, November 21, 2024

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Pressures Futures

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 12 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to 1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Overnight milk futures are lower due to the bearish implications of the milk production report released on Wednesday. The significant revision of September milk production and the substantial increase in cow numbers was a surprise. It indicates milk may remain strong and more cows will be milked than anticipated. The large increase of 19,000 cows from September with the nation's dairy herd at 9.365 million head is 10,000 more than a year ago. This is the first month of cow numbers this year that were higher than the previous year. The USDA will release the October Livestock Slaughter report Thursday afternoon, and it is expected to show lower dairy cattle slaughter.

CHEESE:

Milk futures will move in the direction provided by spot trading Thursday. Cheese buyers may not step back due to the bearishness of the milk production report. After all, the milk produced in October has already been consumed, processed or stored. Buyers might be interested in taking advantage of the current low prices and purchase for expected demand.

BUTTER:

The butter price continues to exhibit weakness, as inventory is sufficient and churning active. Cream supplies are heavier than expected for this time of year. Churns are running full schedules to utilize as much cream as possible with some plants tuning down cream offers. The increased trading activity on the spot market on Wednesday may indicate the price has reached a level at which buyers will be more aggressive.




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