MILK
Milk production is showing signs of improving, as the weather has been good for cow comfort. The milk production is not burdensome, but what is available for bottling and manufacturing is sufficient for needs. Even though cheese inventory is below a year ago, manufacturers want to limit inventory and continue to offer cheese to the market. Sellers continue to offer cheese lower on the spot market with buyers purchasing on the weakness, seeing no need to become aggressive. USDA will release the October Milk Production report next week, and it might show output slightly above a year ago. Market research firm Circana reports that in U.S. multi-outlets and convenience stores for the 52 weeks ending Aug. 11, the overall milk category, comprising refrigerated milk, refrigerated alternative milk, "all other" refrigerated milk, and non-dairy refrigerated milk, notched $19.6 billion in dollar sales at a slight 1.2% decrease over the prior year. In the "all other" refrigerated milk segment, however, there was a 21.2% growth and $252 million in sales, according to an article released by "Dairy Foods" publication. They also reported that the $4.4 billion refrigerated non-dairy segment showed declining year-over-year sales of 53%, while units plummeted 65% to 1.3 billion. Refrigerated alternative milks, with sales of $2.5 billion and units of 636 million, slumped 5.2% and 5.5%, respectively.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $18.97 |
| 6 Month: | $18.86 |
| 9 Month: | $18.72 |
| 12 Month: | $18.71 |
CHEESE
Milk is adequate for production needs. Demand is increasing from retail outlets but continues to remain steady to slightly weaker from the food service industry. This is not expected to change by the end of the year. The inability to improve at this time of year does not bode well for milk prices moving through the end of the year and potentially the early part of next year when demand is slower.
BUTTER
Cream supply is heavier than usual for this time of year with churns running on full schedules. Plants are working to build inventory for expected holiday demand but already have a higher inventory than a year ago. Plants are not concerned over the abundant supply at this point, but it may be a greater issue once the holidays are over. Contracts are being made for the first quarter of 2025 as the price is back down to the level it was a year ago.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
December corn closed down 7.50 cents per bushel at $4.1900, January soybeans closed down 20.25 cents at $9.8750 and December soybean meal closed down $4.60 per ton at $287. December Chicago wheat closed down 10.75 cents at $5.3025. December live cattle closed down $1.08 at $182.95. December crude oil is up $0.27 per barrel at $68.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 207 points at 43,751 with the NASDAQ down 123 points at 19,108.
