Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - September All-Milk Price was $25.50

MILK

Milk futures were generally under pressure with Class III futures entrenched in a downtrend. The current fundamentals do not provide much support to the market. The calendar flips to November tomorrow and there is not much increase in the overall demand for dairy products as one would think there should be. The high prices of food, goods, and services are having an impact on consumer spending. Milk production will continue to hold well and likely increase as farms push milk production to maintain cash flow. The USDA released the September Agricultural Prices report today. The average corn price was $3.98 per bushel compared to $3.84 in August and $5.21 in September 2023. The average supreme/premium hay price was $227.00 per ton compared to $236.00 for August and $288.00 per ton a year ago. The All-milk price was $25.50 per cwt compared to $23.60 in August and $20.90 per cwt a year ago. The average soybean meal price is not on this report and is generally released by the FSA the following morning. However, looking at the prices on this report that make up the income over feed price for the Dairy Margin Coverage program, it is seen that the income over feed price will be higher than in August. The average soybean price was $10.20 per bushel compared to $10.30 in the previous month and $13.20 in September 2023. The alfalfa hay price was $172.00 per ton compared to $175.00 in August and $225.00 per ton in September 2023.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.98
6 Month:	$20.38
9 Month:	$20.03
12 Month:	$19.88

CHEESE

The block cheese price has declined to the lowest level since August 5. The barrel cheese price is at the lowest level since October 14. The price has not moved back as much as blocks but has declined more than blocks since the middle of September. Spot milk prices are $0.50 to $1.50 over class with plants having to go out and look for it rather than having milk handlers calling them. This does not mean the supply is tight, but it is not overwhelming the market.

BUTTER

Butter is seeing some support, but it is not expected to improve the price to any great extent for a long duration of time. The butter supply is sufficient for the holiday season with the price potentially having limited upside potential.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 0.75 cent per bushel at $4.1075, January soybeans closed up 3.25 cents at $9.9450 and December soybean meal closed down $2.10 per ton at $299.50. December Chicago wheat closed down 2.75 cents at $5.7050. December live cattle closed down $0.13 at $186.30. December crude oil is up $0.65 per barrel at $69.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 378 points at 41,763 with the NASDAQ down 513 points at 18,095.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Shows Further Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Lower
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.00 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.25 Lower
DOW JONES:	272 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	479 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.44 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 5 cents closing at $1.84 with no loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 6.50 cents closing at $1.86 with one load traded. No buyers showed up for blocks during spot trading which is not friendly to the market. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 60.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 18 cents lower to 7 cents higher. The butter prices gained 0.25 cent closing at $2.7075 with no loads traded. Nonfat dry milk declined by 0.75 cent closing at $1.3775 with five loads traded. Class IV futures are 10 cents higher to 10 cents lower. Butter futures are 2.00 cents lower to 0.72 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.40 -- 1.50 cents lower. The USDA will release the September Agricultural Prices report this afternoon.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 44

Milk production remains trending weaker in California. Stakeholders convey herd health issues continue to negatively impact milk output. Some handlers convey preliminary records indicate October 2024 milk production decreased compared to October 2023 milk production and is under forecasted volumes. Spot milk load availability is tighter, and manufacturers indicate some open processing capacity throughout the state. Demands for all Classes are steady. 

In Arizona, milk production is somewhat stronger. However, stakeholders convey spot load availability is tight. According to the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), 2024 September milk production decreased by 17 million pounds compared to 2023 September milk production, which represents a negative 4.6 percent change. Demands for all Classes are unchanged. 

In New Mexico, farm level milk output is strengthening somewhat. According to NASS, the number of milk cows in September 2024 compared to September 2023 decreased from 265 thousand head to 239 thousand head, and September 2024 milk production compared to 2023 milk production decreased from 519 million pounds to 472 million pounds. All Class demands are steady. 

Milk production in the Pacific Northwest is stronger. Handlers note milder weather is positively contributing to milk output at above anticipated volumes. Milk volumes are ample for manufacturing needs, and all Class manufacturing demands are steady. 

Farm level milk output in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado is stronger. Manufacturers indicate milk volumes are generally balanced, and demand for spot milk is mixed. All Class demands are unchanged. 

Plenty of cream is available throughout the region. Although cream multiples moved lower, some stakeholders convey stronger demand for cream, and in some cases, loads are being bought for more eastern region delivery locations. Condensed skim milk availability is mixed. Condensed skim milk demand is steady

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Dairy Traders Search for Price Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures remain unable to find solid support. The complacency of buyers in the cash market leaves traders unwilling to buy the futures. Milk production is showing early signs of improving seasonally but the increases may be slow compared to last year due to lower cow numbers. However, production per cow is running above a year ago and will make up some of the difference. Better weather is improving cow comfort and less expensive feed will keep rations balanced for optimum milk production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will begin bulk milk testing for bird flu following pressure from the dairy industry. The USDA aims to monitor the virus's presence in dairy herds and ensure the safety of the milk supply. The USDA will release the September Agricultural Prices report Thursday showing average prices for those commodities used to calculate income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may be stuck in a range as supply is sufficient for demand, leaving buyers and sellers doing business as needed. Cheese inventory is lower than a year ago, but current cheese production is sufficient to supplement inventory, keep the supply sufficient and readily available. Some plants indicate demand has improved recently but will need to increase further to tighten supply.

BUTTER:

The price has seen some recent strength, but it is not expected to last very long. Churning is active due to abundant cream supplies. Retain demand is improving but food service demand is steady to lighter. Butter futures hold some premium to current cash, but not as much as usual.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Lack Direction

MILK

Milk production is steady with some areas indicating a slight increase in production. Milk production should improve as the weeks progress. Milk output is not expected to overwhelm the market as cheese manufacturers utilize what milk is available to them. Some would like more milk to increase cheese production and meet improving demand. Buyers of cheese and butter are comfortable with supplies seeing no need to be aggressive ahead of the holidays. A further decline in the cheese inventory will not generate much excitement as the heavier demand period will last another two months and then the inventory will begin to build as demand slows. Bottled milk demand has been steady. USDA released the October Federal Order prices showed decreases in all categories from September. The Class II price is $21.01, down $1.39 from September and down $0.94 from October 2023. The Class III price is $22.85, down $0.49 from September, but up $6.01 from a year earlier. The Class IV price was $20.90. down $1.39 from September and $0.59 from October 2023.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$19.89
6 Month:	$19.72
9 Month:	$19.59
12 Month:	$19.57

CHEESE

Cheese demand is mixed. There is a dynamic across the country with some plants indicating increasing orders and strong demand. They are struggling to meet demand with the current milk supplies. These plants hope for increased milk receipts from farms to have more supply and to increase production schedules.

BUTTER

Buyer interest in butter has increased due to the market having possibly found a bottom. Buyers had been holding back in anticipation of further weakness. That may have run its course. However, buyers do not expect much upside price potential for the rest of the year as inventory is sufficient for demand and then some.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.1150, January soybeans closed up 12.25 cents at $9.9125 and December soybean meal closed down $.20 per ton at $301.60. December Chicago wheat closed up 2.75 cents at $5.7325. December live cattle closed down $1.53 at $186.43. December crude oil is up $1.40 per barrel at $68.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 92 points at 42,142 with the NASDAQ down 105 points at 18,608.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Buyers Remain Unaggressive

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	11 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.90 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.80 Lower
DOW JONES:	27 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	34 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.13 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price decreased by 0.50 cent closing at $1.89 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 3.50 cents closing at $1.9250 with two loads traded. There were two uncovered offers remaining for blocks at the close. Buyers are unconcerned over supply purchasing cheese on an as-needed basis. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 60.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 15 cents lower to 5 cents higher. The butter price increased 1.50 cents closing at $2.7050 with five loads traded. Nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent closing at $1.3850 with seven loads traded. Class IV futures are 30 cents lower to 10 cents higher. The USDA will announce the October Federal Order prices Wednesday.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cash Prices Expected to Remain Choppy

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	5 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Traders have not seen the need to get excited over price direction. The underlying cash prices seem to be in a range with buyers and sellers comfortable at current levels. The milk production and cold storage reports have been digested by trade. The current level of supply and demand does not indicate an oversupply or an undersupply of milk or dairy products. Demand has not been exceptional and even though cheese inventory is below a year ago, buyers are comfortable and purchasing as needed. The October Federal Order class prices will be released today. The November contract is the lead month and is about half-priced.

CHEESE:

The choppiness of cheese prices may continue as buyers and sellers are comfortable with supply and taking care of business as necessary. There is little desire to build inventory. Cheese production is steady.

BUTTER:

Higher butter inventory and strong butter production will limit the upside price potential through the end of the year and into the following year. The cream supply is higher than usual keeping churns running on full schedules, with some having to sell excess cream to the market. Inventory is expected to remain higher than the previous year for the foreseeable future.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Class III Milk Futures Pull Back Midday While Butter Finds Strength

MILK

Class III Milk futures had an uneventful day, settling nearly unchanged. Non-Fat Dry Milk had the most interest in the cash market today although futures stayed relatively quiet. With no new news or reports out today, we will have to wait and see what demand looks like in the coming weeks.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.98
6 Month:	$20.38
9 Month:	$20.03
12 Month:	$19.88

CHEESE

The spot market for cheese brought some interest in blocks and settled down slightly whereas Barrels did close higher but difficult to say that with confidence given no loads traded and no bids or offers left on the table. There was no real direction in futures as cheese settled virtually unchanged.

BUTTER

Butter appeared to have the most action today and while the gains were modest, it was the only dairy market that showed any real direction, closing anywhere from 1.7 to 3.4 cents higher on the day. Underlying cash was up 1.5 cents however only one load actually traded. Retail demand is suspected to be the cause of any short-term gains here.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 3 cents per bushel at $4.1375, November soybeans closed down 8.75 cents at $9.6525 with first notice day coming up on Thursday and December soybean meal closed down $3.00 per ton at $301.80. December Chicago wheat closed 11.25 cents higher at $5.7050. December live cattle closed down $1.325 at $187.950. December crude oil is up 11 cents per barrel at $67.49. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 154 points at 42,233 with the NASDAQ is up 145 points at 18,712.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Finds Some Strength

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Higher
SOYBEANS:	5 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.60 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.05 Lower
DOW JONES:	75 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	160 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.10 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Both block and barrel cheese prices were mixed. Barrels closed up 2 cents at $1.89 with no bids or offers and blocks closed 0.5 cents lower at $1.8950 with six loads traded and one unfilled offer. The dry whey price remained steady at 60.50 cents with three loads traded. There were two offers and three bids unfulfilled at the close. Class III futures are mixed from 13 cents lower to 15 cents higher. The butter price closed 1.5 cents higher at $2.69 with one load traded and four offers remaining. Grade A nonfat milk gained 1.25 cents closing at $1.3875 with 12 loads traded. Class IV futures are steady to 14 cents higher. Butter futures are 2.30 to 3.15 cents higher. Dry whey futures have not yet traded. Today is the last day to trade October futures and options with the Federal Order prices are to be released on Wednesday.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Show Buying Interest

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$0.50 to $1.00 Lower
Wheat Futures:	4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

Traders did not show a bullish response to the cold storage report but provided general support in the market. The underlying cash prices did not provide direction leaving traders looking for something else to focus on. The milk production report had already been factored in, so attention was on the cold storage report which only provided little support. The focus will be supply and demand moving through the end of the year. The supply of milk will be sufficient but not overwhelming. Milk production per cow is improving with cow numbers holding. The culling rate continues to decrease as farms do not need to cull cows as heavily due to strong prices being received for beef-on-dairy calves. Less expensive feed prices lower the bar on profitability per cow.

CHEESE:

The cheese inventory is below a year ago, but sufficient for demand. Buyers have been complacent as supply is readily available. Demand is seasonally steady but not quite as robust as anticipated. Most contracted orders have been filled or have supplies available to fill orders through the end of the year. This leaves buyers less aggressive on the spot market.

BUTTER:

The butter prices will remain choppy. Retail demand is slowly improving while food service demand is steady to weaker. Butter inventory continues to increase relative to a year ago. The cream supply is heavier than usual for this time of year keeping churns active with some selling extra cream to the market.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Class III Milk Futures Mostly Higher

MILK

Class III milk futures did not have the bounce that was expected due to the bullish nature of the September Cold Storage report, but at least it was supported. The steady cheese prices also kept the market from declining. Traders may be unwilling to pressure the market much more at these prices because of the time of year. Demand will need to improve, or the upside might be limited. Fluid milk demand has been strong and cheese demand steady. There have been some reports of increasing cheese demand with plants indicating they are sold out of supply and are just able to keep up with demand. However, this is not widespread otherwise prices would be higher and inventory lower than it is. Lower corn prices generally correlate to lower milk prices. This might be some of what we are currently seeing as culling has slowed down and milk production per cow has risen.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.98
6 Month:	$20.38
9 Month:	$20.03
12 Month:	$19.91

CHEESE

Steady cheese prices on the spot market left traders guessing price direction. It did provide some minor support to Class III futures, but prices will need to increase before much more upside will be realized. Cheese production is steady and is moving to the market. Inventory is declining and running 8% below a year ago. It is not expected to increase much through the end of the year. Buyers feel comfortable with the supply.

BUTTER

The butter price is likely to have limited upside potential and is expected to remain in a sideways price range through the end of the year. Inventory is declining but at a slower pace than usual. Retail demand is showing some increase while food service demand is lighter than expected.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 4.50 cents per bushel at $4.1075, November soybeans closed down 13.75 cents at $9.7400 and December soybean meal closed down $1.00 per ton at $304.80. December Chicago wheat closed down 10.25 cents at $5.5875. December live cattle closed up $0.13 at $189.28. December crude oil is down $4.40 per barrel at $67.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 273 points at 42,388 with the NASDAQ is up 49 points at 18,567.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cash Prices Provide No Direction

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	4 Lower
SOYBEANS:	10 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.90 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.25 Higher
DOW JONES:	305 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	101 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$4.14 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Both block and barrel cheese prices were unchanged with no loads traded. An offer was posted for a load of blocks with no buyers showing up to do business. Prices remained at $1.90 and $1.87 respectively. The dry whey price remained steady at 60.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are mixed from 17 cents lower to 12 cents higher. The butter price declined 2 cents closing at $2.6750 with three loads traded. Grade A nonfat milk remained unchanged at $1.3750 with 10 loads traded. Class IV futures remain unchanged. Butter futures are unchanged to 3.25 cents lower. Dry whey futures have not yet traded. Tuesday will be the last day to trade October futures and options with the Federal Order prices release on Wednesday.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Show Strength Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 6 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	5 to 7 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$0.50 to $1 lower
Wheat Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

MILK:

The September Cold Storage report was considered to be bullish on the market as cheese inventory remains significantly below a year ago. However, spot trading will dictate the level of strength or weakness of the market. Buyers have been comfortable with supplies and that may not change anytime soon. Milk production is at seasonal lows but remains slightly higher than a year ago. Milk production is expected to increase over the next weeks as cooler temperatures will improve cow comfort. Milk futures may show some buying interest this morning, but that interest might be limited until spot trading provides direction.

CHEESE:

American cheese inventory in September was down 8% from the previous year. This was the lowest monthly inventory since November 2020 and the lowest September inventory since 2020. Other cheese inventory was 7% below a year ago. This may not generate aggressive buying interest in the spot market but may provide some support limiting further downside pressure.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to continue to chop around as supply is sufficient for demand leaving buyers comfortable. Butter manufacturing is strong due to the plentiful cream supply. Manufacturers keep moving supply to the market to limit the growth of inventory. However, inventory is 14% above a year ago which may limit the upside price potential. 

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - September Cheese Inventory Shows Further Declines

MILK

Class III milk futures fell during the week as the weakness of cheese provided no support. Buyers did not see the weakness as a buying opportunity in the cash market. It will take some bullish news to have the market rally back up to where it had been about a week ago. The September Cold Storage report could provide support as traders should view this as positive. Traders might buy into the futures next week, but it will need to be supported by cash. There are some positive reports of demand improving in some areas, but there will need to be further evidence of that over the next few weeks. The September Livestock Slaughter Report showed a further contraction of slaughter. Dairy cattle slaughter totaled 210,400 head, down 20,900 head from August. This was 30,100 head less than September 2023 and the lowest September slaughter since 2007.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$21.02
6 Month:	$20.38
9 Month:	$20.04
12 Month:	$19.89

CHEESE

For the week, blocks declined 2.50 cents with five loads traded. Barrels fell 14 cents with nine loads traded. Dry whey gained 0.25 cent with 13 loads traded. The September Cold Storage report showed a decline in inventory. American cheese stocks declined 10.8 million pounds from August totaling 782.8 million pounds. This was 8% below a year ago. Swiss cheese stocks declined 378,000 pounds totaling 22.2 million pounds, up 2% from the previous year. Other cheese inventory declined by 7.2 million pounds from August totaling 570.4 million pounds. Total cheese stocks declined 18.3 million pounds totaling 1.375 billion pounds, down 7% from September 2023.

BUTTER

For the week, butter increased by 3.50 cents with 15 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped by 0.50 cent with 32 loads traded. Butter inventory in September declined by 21.4 million pounds totaling 303.0 million pounds. This was 14% above a year ago. This will keep the upside of butter limited. Continued strong butter production may push inventory even higher than last year by the end of the year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 6.25 cents per bushel at $4.1525, November soybeans closed down 8.50 cents at $9.8775 and December soybean meal closed down $4.60 per ton at $305.80. December Chicago wheat closed down 12.50 cents at $5.6900. December live cattle closed down $0.10 at $189.15. December crude oil is up $1.59 per barrel at $71.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 260 points at 42,114 with the NASDAQ up 103 points at 18,519.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures See More Pressure

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Lower
SOYBEANS:	9 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.40 Higher
DOW JONES:	346 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	148 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.40 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese prices declined 2 cents closing at $1.90 with no loads traded. Two uncovered offers remained at the close with no buyers showing up to do any business. The barrel price slipped by 0.50 cent closing at $1.87 with two loads traded. The dry whey price remained steady at 60.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures remain under selling pressure with contracts 27 cents lower to 2 cents higher. The butter price gained 4.50 cents closing at $2.6950 with five loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk gained 1.50 cents closing at $1.3750 with two loads traded. Class IV futures are steady to 10 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.85 cent lower to 3.25 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.75 cent lower. The USDA will release the September Cold Storage report Friday afternoon. There will be no Dairy Revenue Protection daily prices released Friday.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - September Cold Storage Report Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	7 to 9 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	6 to 8 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures remain under pressure as underlying cash shows no support. Hopefully, prices may move to levels that will generate buying interest and higher prices. There are reports of improving demand in some areas while others indicate steady demand. The milk supply is sufficient for both bottling and manufacturing. Milk production remains at seasonally low levels but will improve over the next few weeks. The volume of milk available is not overwhelming in the market but is sufficient to keep the industry comfortable with supply. Traders turned bearish on the market after the milk production report and from the weakness of the underlying cash. Hopefully, some support will be seen from the cold storage report Friday afternoon.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may have difficulty moving above the $2.00 level if prices rebound. Demand should improve through the holidays, but buyers are comfortable with supply. The September Cold Storage report is expected to show inventory below a year ago. If it has decreased more than expected, traders may turn bullish on the market again.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain choppy. A price increase will bring sellers to the market more aggressively. Churning is active, providing a sufficient supply of butter to the market. The cold storage report is expected to show inventory higher than a year ago, keeping the market range bound.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Remain Under Pressure

MILK

Milk futures were under pressure again today as the barrel cheese and butter prices slipped. Closer Class III contract fell over $1.00 over the past week. The September Milk Production report and the weakness of underlying cash prices took support from under the market. Milk production remains at its seasonal low but is expected to improve as the weather in most areas of the country has been good for cow comfort. The hot weather has subsided in California, but the duration of the hot weather has impacted milk output and will keep it subdued as it will take time and the next lactation for some cows to rebound significantly. Harvest has progressed and continues to progress rapidly keeping the market supplies of grain at reasonable prices. Spot milk prices showed a wide range from $1.50 under to $2.50 over class depending on the location. This is not too much different than it was a year ago. Milk production in September was slightly above a year earlier, leaving the industry comfortable with current supplies. Cheese output is steady with butter production higher.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$21.09
6 Month:	$20.50
9 Month:	$20.12
12 Month:	$19.97

CHEESE

Interestingly, Dairy Market News reports this week that cheese plants in the Midwest are bullish on the market. They indicate customers are adding to their previous orders as demand has increased recently. That has not been reflected in the daily spot market and may not be if supplies are sufficient and manufacturing schedules strong. The September Cold Storage report will be released on Friday afternoon and may show inventory significantly below a year ago. However, inventory may not matter depending on the demand or lack of demand for fresh cheese traded on the daily spot market.

BUTTER

The butter price continues to chop unable to establish a trend. August butterfat exports increased by 3,559 metric tons or 25.5% above August 2023. Year-to-date exports are 6.1% higher than during the same period last year. However, that is not having much impact on the market due to inventory higher than last year and heavy cream supplies keeping churns full.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 2.50 cents per bushel at $4.2150, November soybeans closed down 1.25 cents at $9.9625 and December soybean meal closed down $4.60 per ton at $310.40. December Chicago wheat closed up 3.00 cents at $5.8150. December live cattle closed up $1.38 at $189.25. December crude oil is down $0.58 per barrel at $70.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 141 points at 42,374 with the NASDAQ up 139 points at 18,415.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Barrels Show Continued Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	4 Higher
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.90 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.25 Lower
DOW JONES:	172 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	111 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.67 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained steady at $1.92 with no loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 3.25 cents closing at $1.8750 with one load traded. There was an uncovered offer for a load of blocks remaining at the close with no unfilled bids. No unfilled bids or uncovered offers remained at the close in barrels. The dry whey price increased 0.25 cent closing at 60.50 cents with six loads traded. Class III futures are 24 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The butter price slipped 0.50 cent closing at $2.65 with four loads traded. Nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.36 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 5 to 12 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.90 to 3.25 cents lower. Dry whey futures have not yet traded.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 43

The September NASS Milk Production report showed no notable changes in year-over-year milk output in California. That said, Golden State contacts are noting sizeable decreases in more recent milk output, particularly over the past two weeks. Central Valley temperatures have cooled down, but contacts there say the cooler weather came late and they are playing catchup on milk needs after seeing 100-degree temperatures in the month of October. 

Contacts in Idaho and Colorado say weather has been widely variant. Coloradan contacts say milk is beginning to rebound from annual lulls. Idaho contacts relay milk output there has stayed somewhat steady, despite warmer temperatures. In the Southwest, contacts say milk output is steady. 

Milk production in Arizona is down year over year, but up from last month. Weather in Arizona and New Mexico is slowly becoming more conducive to cow comfort. 

Farm level milk outputs in the Pacific Northwest are strong. Weather is favorable for cow comfort and milk production is above predicted outputs. 

Processing needs throughout the West are generally being met, but fluid milk is not noted as loose in any area of the region. In fact, contacts say milk trucks are moving from the Mountain States region to states in the Midwest and as far as the East region of the country, keeping regional milk supplies balanced to tight. 

The cream narrative, on the other hand, is following a different path, one of somewhat heavy availability. Contacts throughout the region say cream demand has been tepid.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Search for Further Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

Milk futures may have a difficult time recovering from the recent losses. Underlying cash prices are not rebounding as hoped with buyers of cheese unaggressive with purchases. Milk production in September was higher than expected with August higher than expected after the USDA released the revision and adjusted production up 0.5%. This should have already been in the market, but traders reacted negatively. Buyers of cheese and butter have not reacted to the report but continue to take care of business as they see fit. The increased reports of bird flu primarily in California have not had much impact on the market. It has not caused concern over supply for now. The milk production report was bearish while the cold storage report to be released on Friday might be bullish and reverse some of the negativity in the market.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may have difficulty moving much above $2.00 unless demand improves. Overall restaurant traffic has decreased slightly, having some impact on dairy product demand. Cheese exports remain strong with August exports up 14.8% over August 2023. Cheese exports for the first eight months of the year are 21.6% above the same period last year.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to chop around in a range with buyer interest being satisfied as sellers continue to offer loads to the market. Churning is active providing sufficient supply of fresh butter to meet demand while limiting the amount of inventory required to meet that demand.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - November Class I Price Is $22.53

MILK

Milk futures tried to recover from the bearishness of the September Milk Production report but were held back somewhat by the weakness of barrel cheese and butter. Spot prices need to move higher in tandem to generate strong buying interest. Steady milk production and the potential increase in output as the rest of the year progresses may limit the upside-price potential unless demand improves significantly. Milk production for the third quarter was nearly the same as the previous year with a difference of only 15 million pounds, unchanged on a percentage basis. There were 11 of the top 24 states showing a decline in milk production. The largest percentage decline was in New Mexico which was down 9.1%. This was followed by Virginia down 5.3%, Arizona down 4.6% and Illinois down 4.4%. The rest of the states with lower milk production showed a decrease of less than 3.0%. The largest gain was seen in South Dakota with production up 7.9% followed by Texas up 4.9%. The rest of the gains were less than 3.0%. The November advanced Class I price was announced at $22.53, down $0.64 from October and up $2.78 from November 2023.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$21.16
6 Month:	$20.59
9 Month:	$20.20
12 Month:	$20.05

CHEESE

Much of the buying of cheese for the holidays had been completed for the cheese that had been contracted. The business now through the holidays will be regular business and orders that come in over and above contracted supplies. Buyers anticipate sufficient supply leaving them less aggressive in the spot market. The September Cold Storage report will be released on Friday and is expected to show cheese inventory below a year ago. However, the supply will be sufficient for needs. Steady cheese production will keep fresh cheese available for the daily spot market.

BUTTER

Butter supplies are sufficient, and churning is active. This limits the decrease in inventory keeping stocks higher than a year ago. The butter price is expected to remain choppy moving through the rest of the year with limited upside potential.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 2.50 cents per bushel at $4.1900, November soybeans closed up 5.75 cents at $9.9750 and December soybean meal closed down $2.70 per ton at $315.00. December Chicago wheat closed up 2.50 cents at $5.7850. December live cattle closed down $0.25 at $187.88. December crude oil is down $0.97 per barrel at $70.77. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 410 points at 42,515 with the NASDAQ down 296 points at 18,277.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese Regains Yesterday's Loss

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Higher
SOYBEANS:	6 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.65 Lower
DOW JONES:	471 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	349 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.12 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 3 cents closing at $1.92 with one load traded. An offer remained at the close price, with the seller unwilling to offer it lower. The barrel cheese price slipped by 0.25 cent closing at $1.9075 with one load traded. An uncovered offer remained at the close. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 60.25 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures were lower but turned higher after spot trading with contracts unchanged to 17 cents higher. The butter price declined 2.25 cents closing at $2.65 with no loads traded. Four uncovered offers remained at the close. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.36 with 11 loads traded. Class IV futures have only traded in the December contract at 12 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.27 -- 3.40 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.40 -- 0.50 cent higher.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cash Unable to Find Long-term Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures cannot get a break the past three days. Once buyers had finished purchasing the volume of cheese and butter they wanted, the market fell back. The buyers see sufficient supply and have no need to be concerned through the end of the year. Demand has not improved as much as hoped. The harvest pace has been rapid with plentiful feed supplies available at reasonable prices. This may keep milk production strong as farmers balance rations for optimal milk production. Milk prices usually have a strong correlation to the corn price. The low corn price may result in lower milk prices next year. Reduced cow numbers are being made up for with higher milk production per cow.

CHEESE:

Cheese buyers have little concern over supply and bid the prices higher only when needing to purchase supply for immediate needs. Once that purchase is completed, prices fall back until lower prices stimulate demand. The inability of cheese prices to increase at this time of year is a concern and dims the price outlook through the rest of the year.

BUTTER:

The butter price may remain in a range as buyers and sellers seem comfortable with supply and demand. The cold storage report to be released on Friday is expected to show inventory significantly higher than a year ago. Churning is active keeping sufficient supply available to the market. 

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Markets Continue to Trade Lower After September Milk Production Report

MILK

Class III milk futures closed lower, continuing the negative trend from yesterday and late last week. With higher-than-expected production release on the report yesterday, it was hard to gain any reason for buying. Class III settled at 48 cents lower.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$21.57
6 Month:	$20.88
9 Month:	$20.40
12 Month:	$20.17

CHEESE

Traders did not see today's selloff as a buying opportunity. With only one load traded in both blocks and barrels, as well as futures settling on average 50 cents lower, we continue the sell off for now.

BUTTER

Butter traded lower today, much like the rest of the dairy sector, however futures performed slightly better than the cash market today, only down 3 cents versus the 5.25 cents we saw in the cash auction midday.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 7 cents per bushel at $4.1650, November soybeans closed up 11.00 cents at $9.9200 and December soybean meal closed down $0.50 per ton at $317.70. December Chicago wheat closed down 3.75 cents at $5.76. December live cattle closed up $1.30 at $186.83. December crude oil is up $1.70 per barrel at $71.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 6 points at 42,924 with the NASDAQ up 33 points at 18,573.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Weakens Further

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Higher
SOYBEANS:	8 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.00 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.07 Higher
DOW JONES:	22 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	10 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.74 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined by 3 cents closing at $1.89 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price declined by 7 cents closing at $1.91 with four loads traded. The dry whey price remained steady at 60.25 cents with seven loads traded. Class III contracts are 1 to 58 cents lower. The butter price decreased 5.25 cents closing at $2.6775 with three loads traded. Nonfat dry milk lost 2.75 cents closing at $1.36 with 16 loads traded. Class IV futures are 10 to 30 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.20 to 6 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.35 to 1 cent lower.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Will Struggle Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	10 to 20 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures were lower after cheese prices declined during spot trading. The September Milk Production report was released about the same time the CME settled the market for the day. After the settlement, further selling pressure was put on the market due to the bearishness of the report. This was reflected in overnight trade with contracts 32 cents lower to 4 cents higher. September milk production was higher than a year ago with production per cow up nine pounds from September 2023. The other bearish influence was the significant revision of August milk production 0.5 percent higher than initially reported. This indicates sufficient milk will be available for demand. However, the spot market may not be impacted much as this milk has already been available and processed.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese on Monday was not a surprise. Prices are expected to be choppy, and buyers and sellers take care of business. The buyers have not had to be aggressive as sellers continued to offer cheese on the spot market. Cheese is available, but it will be up to demand to generate more aggressive buying interest in the spot market.

BUTTER:

The butter price is not expected to trend higher anytime soon as there is sufficient supply for demand. Churning is active due to the abundant supply of cream. Strong production limits the amount of butter that needs to come out of inventory to meet demand. The cold storage report will be released on Friday and is expected to show butter stocks higher than a year ago.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - September Milk Production Up 0.1%

MILK

Class III milk futures closed lower. Further pressure was put on contracts after the September Milk Production report was released and showed milk production higher than a year ago. This is bearish to the market as milk production was anticipated to remain below a year ago. Milk production in the top 24 states totaled 17.5 billion pounds, up 0.2% from the previous year. Milk production per cow was 8 pounds higher than September 2023. Cow numbers totaled 8.89 million head, unchanged from August. U.S. milk production totaled 18.2 billion pounds, up 0.1% from September 2023. Cow numbers remained unchanged from August at 9.328 million head. Milk production per cow was 9 pounds higher than a year ago. The greater bearishness of the report was the revision from the previous month. August milk production in the top 24 states was revised to an increase of 0.5%. U.S. milk production was revised higher showing an increase of 0.4%. Third-quarter milk production was up only 15 pounds above the third quarter of 2023 and too minor to show a percentage increase.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$21.43
6 Month:	$20.75
9 Month:	$20.28
12 Month:	$20.08

CHEESE

Traders did not welcome the weakness of cheese prices. The decline may be short-lived, but traders are reactive to the market and are not interested in buying and holding for the long term. The decline in cheese prices may be viewed as a buying opportunity. However, higher milk production than anticipated may leave buyers less aggressive in the market as cheese production should remain strong and be available for demand. This will need to be balanced with the cold storage report to be released on Friday.

BUTTER

The heavy supply of butter that had been available to the market might have come back into balance with sellers not offering butter at lower prices or in a large volume. Buyers may need to step up more to purchase supplies for immediate and fill-in demand.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 4.75 cents per bushel at $4.0950, November soybeans closed up 11.00 cents at $9.8100 and December soybean meal closed up $2.70 per ton at $318.30. December Chicago wheat closed down .50 cent at $5.7225. December live cattle closed down $0.50 at $186.83. December crude oil is up $1.35 per barrel at $70.04. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 344 points at 42,932 with the NASDAQ up 50 points at 18,540.

September Milk Production up 0.2 Percent

September Milk Production up 0.2 Percent

Milk production in the 24 major States during September totaled 17.5 billion pounds, up 0.2 percent from September 2023. August revised production, at 18.2 billion pounds, was up 0.5 percent from August 2023. The August revision

represented an increase of 85 million pounds or 0.5 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.

Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,966 pounds for September, 8 pounds above September 2023.

The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.89 million head, 20,000 head less than September 2023, but unchanged from August 2024.

July-September Milk Production up slightly

Milk production in the United States during the July - September quarter totaled 56.0 billion pounds, up slightly from the July - September quarter last year.

The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.33 million head, 3,000 head less than the April - June quarter, and 41,000 head less than the same period last year.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dairy Class III Futures Set Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Higher
SOYBEANS:	8 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.00 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.45 Lower
DOW JONES:	312 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	3 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.64 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined by 0.50 cent closing at $1.92 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined by 3 cents closing at $1.98 with four loads traded. The dry whey price remained steady at 60.25 cents with no loads traded. The weakness of cheese put pressure on Class III futures as one would expect. Prices are likely to continue to chop around. Class III contacts are 3 to 28 cents lower. The butter price jumped 7 cents closing at $2.73 with three loads traded. Nonfat dry milk gained 0.75 cent closing at $1.3875 with three loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded today. Butter futures are 0.20 to 2.00 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.42 cent lower. The USDA will release the September Milk Production report Monday afternoon. I estimate milk production to be steady from a year ago. Also, I estimate cow numbers to be 2,000 head higher than in August but remain substantially below a year ago.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Futures Trade Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	6 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Traders will be cautious ahead of spot trading due to the uncertainty of the continued strength of cheese. Butter may remain choppy as buyers and sellers take care of business. The September Milk Production report will be released Monday afternoon and may set market direction through the rest of the year. If milk production in September was higher than a year earlier, it may limit the upside price potential. Cow numbers will remain significantly below a year ago, but production per cow is expected to be strong. I estimate milk production will be steady with a year ago and cow numbers 2,000 head more than in August. Hopefully, demand will improve through the rest of the year further drawing down inventory and support prices.

CHEESE:

It is uncertain whether further gains will be seen in cheese prices after the recent increases. Buyers may have sufficient supply on hand leaving them less aggressive. There may be limited upside potential unless demand improves more than it is through the end of the year. Cheese futures hold some premium on the idea cheese prices will strengthen through the end of the year.

BUTTER:

The butter price may struggle to see much upside with the current market fundamentals. The cold storage report will be released on Friday and is expected to show inventory higher than a year ago. Strong churning activity continues to provide an increased supply to the market reducing the amount of inventory decline.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Gain for The Week

MILK

It was a positive week for Class III futures despite lower prices today. The November and December contracts closed the week above $21.00. The January and February contracts closed above $20.00. Some contracts in 2025 closed higher at the end of the day. Cheese buyers became more aggressive this week with barrels posting a stronger gain inverting the market. Traders turned somewhat bullish as the underlying cash performed much better than it had over the past month. Increased buying interest was evident with buyers taking advantage of the lower prices. The gain may be limited as milk production remains steady and is expected to improve over the next weeks. The West is experiencing hot weather that will delay the seasonal increase in milk production. The milk supply is sufficient for demand keeping cheese plants full and butter plants running at full capacity. The USDA will release the September Milk Production report on Monday. I estimate milk production to be unchanged from a year ago and cow numbers to increase by 2,000 head from August.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$21.77
6 Month:	$21.04
9 Month:	$20.51
12 Month:	$20.24

CHEESE

For the week, blocks increased by 3.75 cents with 16 loads traded. Barrels increased by 12.25 cents with eight loads traded. Dry increased by 1.75 cents with 21 loads traded. After weeks of selling pressure, the price was finally low enough to generate interest from buyers. They were not aggressive but interested in bidding higher to obtain supply. Traders will exercise caution as it is unclear how much demand will improve as we move closer to the holidays.

BUTTER

For the week, butter increased by 3.50 cents with 161 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased by 2.75 cents with 24 loads traded. The butter price may have limited upside price potential due to available supply. The price may find a level where buyers and sellers will be comfortable doing business.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 2.00 cents per bushel at $4.0475, November soybeans closed down 18.75 cents at $9.7000 and December soybean meal closed down $2.50 per ton at $315.60. December Chicago wheat closed down 16.75 cents at $5.7275. December live cattle closed up $1.15 at $187.33. November crude oil is down $1.45 per barrel at $69.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37 points at 43,276 with the NASDAQ up 116 points at 18,490.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Buyers and Sellers Take A Breather

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 lower
SOYBEANS:	19 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.20 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.97 Higher
DOW JONES:	46 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	137 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.10 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Both block and barrel cheese prices remained unchanged at $1.9250 and $2.01 respectively with no loads traded. Only an offer was posted for a load of blocks at the unchanged price. No one else showed up to do any business. This was disappointing to traders resulting in selling pressure on Class III futures. The dry whey price increased by 0.75 cent closing at 60.25 cents with six loads traded. There were unfilled bids and uncovered offers remaining at the close on both sides of the market. Class III futures are 21 cents lower to 18 cents higher. The butter price decreased 2 cents closing at $2.66 with one load traded. There were unfilled bids for three loads at the close with no uncovered offers. Nonfat dry milk increased 2 cents closing at $1.38 with 12 loads traded. Class IV futures are mixed from 15 cents lower to 10 cents higher. Butter futures are 3.32 cents lower to 3.25 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.27 to 1.00 cents higher.