Friday, August 2, 2024

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese May Show Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 8 to 12 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures have been under substantial pressure over the past two days as the weakness of cheese indicates buyers do not need to be aggressive. Cheese prices remain in a range with no indication of supply tightness. Inventory is lower than a year ago, but that has not caused buyers to become aggressive. The current level of milk production is below a year ago but remains sufficient for bottling and manufacturing needs. More milk will move to deficit areas in a few weeks as schools reopen again. This may tighten the supply available for manufacturing and increase spot prices. That is seasonal and does not seem to be a concern for the market. Trading activity is expected to be limited ahead of spot trading.

CHEESE:

The activity during spot trading Thursday suggests further weakness Friday. There were posted during the trading period with no interest from buyers. As long as sellers want to move cheese and lower the price, buyers may hold back. Cheese inventory is below a year ago, but sufficient to meet demand. The demand for fresh cheese will be the driving factor in the market.

BUTTER:

There is a good supply/demand balance in the market. This will keep the price rangebound in the near term. Butter futures do not carry much premium through October and then are at a discount to cash in later contracts. Traders show no anticipation of prices moving out of the trading range.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...