Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Underlying Cash Remains Stable

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 7 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures should remain supported as the underlying cash should see limited downside potential. Milk production has been lower than the previous year since October and is expected to remain that way for the rest of this year. Cow numbers continue to run below a year ago which will be the limiting factor for a time. However, even though the heifer supply is tight and expensive, culling has declined, which could increase cow numbers. Feed prices are declining which may lower the bar for cows that will be retained in the herd. The July Federal Order class prices will be announced Wednesday with the trade anticipating a Class III price of $19.83 and a Class IV price of $20.43. The June Agricultural Prices report will also be released, providing the prices used in calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. There will be no payments for the month due to the difference in feed and milk prices.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to hold or increase with limited price declines -- if any. Sellers continue to offer loads to the spot market, indicating there is no shortage of cheese, but the sellers have not been aggressive. Prices may remain in a range for the near term.

BUTTER:

Supply and demand seem to be balanced for butter. Buyers are not concerned about a shortage even though the cream supply has tightened. Churning is still active with a sufficient supply of butter available. This may keep the spot butter price in a range for a time.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...