Friday, July 12, 2024

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait For Cash to Provide Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 7 to 8 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have been flip-flopping up and down during the day. The recent pattern has been that early strength turns weaker as the day progresses and early weakness turns stronger as the day progresses. Traders attempt to guess the underlying cash price direction but have not been very successful recently. Milk production is declining seasonally, but sufficient supply remains available for current bottling and manufacturing demand. The milk supply is expected to tighten further as production remains below a year ago. The level of demand will be the key to the strength of prices. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand report will be released today. It contains USDA's estimates of milk production, milk prices, and dairy product prices for this year and next year.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices still are not ready to trend higher. Buyers have not been aggressive and are willing to purchase cheese on price weakness, but unwilling to chase the market higher. This may change as the summer progresses and preparations are made for schools reopening and holiday demand. The dry whey price has been the silent mover with the price moving to the highest level since Feb. 23. This provides support to Class III prices.

BUTTER:

The lower butter price is expected to find buyer interest as demand is expected to improve. The weakness of butter on the Global Dairy Trade auction and lower exports during May could limit strength in the near term. However, the price is expected to remain supported.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...