Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - July Class III Milk Futures Price Is $19.79

MILK

Class III milk futures quickly fell back on the weakness of cheese prices. Traders were quick to liquidate positions rather than hold to see whether the weakness with be temporary. Futures may have been overdone to the downside, but that will depend on whether price will hold tomorrow or see further weakness. The July Federal Order prices were announced today. The Class II price is $21.82, up $0.22 from June and $2.70 per cwt higher than July 2023. The Class III price is $19.79, down $0.08 from June and $6.02 per cwt from a year ago. The Class IV price is $21.31, up $0.23 from June and $3.05 per cwt higher than June 2023.

USDA released the June Agricultural Prices report which contains average prices for most agricultural products. The average corn price was $4.48 per bushel, down $0.03 from May and compares to $6.29 per bushel in June 2023. The premium/supreme hay price was $256.00 per ton, down $20.00 per ton from May and compares to $310.00 per ton a year ago. The All-milk price was $22.80, up $0.80 per cwt from May and up $5.00 per cwt from June 2023. These prices are used in the calculation of the income over feed price for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The soybean meal price is not in this report and will be released by the FSA. Once that is released, the income over feed price will be known. There will be no DMC payment as the decrease in feed prices and the increase of the milk price will improve the income over feed resulting in no payment.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.92
6 Month:	$20.38
9 Month:	$19.77
12 Month:	$19.43

CHEESE

Demand for cheese is steady, but some weakness has been noted from the food service industry. This may be temporary but is a cause for caution over the price potential for cheese. Spot milk prices have increased slightly with the current range from class to $2.00 over class. Manufacturers are having to go out and look for extra milk rather than receiving calls to take extra milk. This does not indicate the market is tightening and cheese production is declining. It does increase the concern over the possibility of the potential for tighter supply as the year progresses.

BUTTER

The strength in butter price over the past two days does not indicate a change in the market. It solidifies that the market will remain in a sideways trading range for the near term. Food service demand has been a bit slow but is expected to improve over the next few months.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 5.25 cents per bushel at $3.9975, November soybeans closed up 1.25 cents at $10.2250 and December soybean meal closed down $2.30 per ton at $315.70. September Chicago wheat closed up 3.25 cents at $5.2725. October live cattle closed down $0.78 at $186.68. September crude oil is up $3.18 per barrel at $77.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 99 points at 40,843 with the NASDAQ is up 452 points at 17,599.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Drop Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Lower
SOYBEANS:	1 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.70 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.57 Lower
DOW JONES:	172 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	348 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$3.01 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined by 3.50 cents, closing at $1.9150 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined by 1.25 cents, closing at $1.9750 with two loads traded. There were uncovered offers for three loads of blocks and two loads of barrels remaining at the close. The weakness could move buyers to the sidelines briefly as they wait to see if sellers will be aggressive. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 62 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are under pressure through the December contract with losses of 13 to 42 cents with September being hit the hardest. The butter price gained 2.50 cents, closing at $3.1275 with 15 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent, closing at $1.2450 with six loads traded. Class IV futures have only traded in the March contract at 2 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.47 cent lower to 1 50 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 1.77 cents lower to 0.30 cent higher. USDA will announce the Federal order class prices this afternoon. They also will release the June Agricultural Prices report.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Underlying Cash Remains Stable

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	7 to 10 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures should remain supported as the underlying cash should see limited downside potential. Milk production has been lower than the previous year since October and is expected to remain that way for the rest of this year. Cow numbers continue to run below a year ago which will be the limiting factor for a time. However, even though the heifer supply is tight and expensive, culling has declined, which could increase cow numbers. Feed prices are declining which may lower the bar for cows that will be retained in the herd. The July Federal Order class prices will be announced Wednesday with the trade anticipating a Class III price of $19.83 and a Class IV price of $20.43. The June Agricultural Prices report will also be released, providing the prices used in calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. There will be no payments for the month due to the difference in feed and milk prices.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to hold or increase with limited price declines -- if any. Sellers continue to offer loads to the spot market, indicating there is no shortage of cheese, but the sellers have not been aggressive. Prices may remain in a range for the near term.

BUTTER:

Supply and demand seem to be balanced for butter. Buyers are not concerned about a shortage even though the cream supply has tightened. Churning is still active with a sufficient supply of butter available. This may keep the spot butter price in a range for a time.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Dry Whey Drives Class III Futures Higher

MILK

Class III milk futures extended their gains with September through January contacts posting new contract highs. The August Class III contract is now above the August Class IV contract with the September contract nearly at the same price as the Class IV price. Dry whey was the driver of the market today. The price increase of 5 cents moved the price to the highest level since April 22, 2022. Today's increase was the largest one-day increase since August 5, 2021. The movement of the dry whey price added 30 cents to the Class III price calculation. Declining milk production has not tightened the market significantly, but it may begin to get more attention from the buyers. They may step up and purchase to make sure they have sufficient supply on hand moving through the end of the year. The July Federal Order class prices will be announced on Wednesday with the trade estimating a Class III price of $19.83 and a Class IV price of $21.43.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$21.29
6 Month:	$20.62
9 Month:	$19.94
12 Month:	$19.55

CHEESE

Cheese prices remain in a range, but strong support and the steady increase may eventually push prices out of the range and begin to trend higher. Higher milk prices and low grain prices continue to improve the income over feed. This does not look to change anytime soon. USDA will release the June Agricultural Prices report on Wednesday which is expected to show an improved income over feed price than the previous month.

BUTTER

Buyers were more aggressive in the spot market looking for butter to fill orders and increase ownership. This caused the price to increase but the gain was limited. Sellers were willing to bring butter to the market as there are plentiful supplies in inventory. The price is expected to remain in a sideways pattern for the near term.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 7.25 cents per bushel at $4.0500, November soybeans closed down 18.25 cents at $10.2125 and December soybean meal closed down $5.50 per ton at $318.00. September Chicago wheat closed down 7.00 cents at $5.2400. October live cattle closed up $0.65 at $187.45. September crude oil is down $0.53 per barrel at $75.28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 203 points at 40,743 with the NASDAQ down 223 points at 17,147.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Moves to a New High

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	7 Lower
SOYBEANS:	20 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.42 Higher
DOW JONES:	112 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	232 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.32 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained unchanged at $1.95 with no loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 1.25 cents, closing at $1.9875 with one load traded. There were no unfilled bids or uncovered offers remaining at the close. The big mover was the dry whey price posting a gain of 5 cents, closing at 62 cents with three loads traded. This provided much of the support seen in the Class III futures contracts. Class III futures are 2 to 23 cents higher with the June 2025 contract showing the greatest gain. The butter price increased by 1.50 cents, closing at $3.1025 with nine loads traded. Nonfat dry milk increased by 0.75 cent, closing at $1.2475 with five loads traded. Class IV futures are mixed from 7 cents lower to 7 cents higher. Butter futures are steady to 1.50 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 2 cents higher. Tuesday is the last day to trade July futures and options with the Federal Order prices announced on Wednesday.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures:	8 to 14 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$4 to $6 Lower
Wheat Futures:	10 to 12 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures held onto the gains of Monday in overnight trade. Trading activity was moderate for a night session. Milk futures will follow underlying cash rather than building a premium or holding a discount as traders will be cautious over the level of milk production and the level of demand through the rest of the year. The outlook for milk prices has improved with Class III futures showing a seasonality with prices peaking in September and October. This may change as the second half of the year progresses and the balance of supply and demand unfolds. Tuesday is the last day to trade July futures and options with the July Federal Order class prices to be announced Wednesday.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices remain rangebound as buyers and sellers appear comfortable with supply and current prices. Buyers seasonally become more aggressive as they look ahead to fill contracts and purchase supply for increased demand. The current supply of cheese is sufficient with little concern over a tight supply. This may continue for another few weeks.

BUTTER:

The butter price continues to chop around with little reason to move higher. The price uptrend has stalled with the current trend sideways. Both domestic and international demand is steady, leaving little reason to be concerned over supply. Churning has slowed due to tightening cream supplies, but remains adequate for demand.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - A Somewhat Uneventful Day for Futures

MILK

It was a rather quiet day in milk futures. Class IV contracts did not trade with the minor change in underlying cash prices showing little reason for prices to move. Class III futures were lower until closer to spot trading and increased due to the increase in cheese prices. The current level of milk production supports the market and should maintain strong milk prices. The concern is the level of demand that will surface as the year progresses. The current demand is good and should improve seasonally. Buyers of butter and cheese have not stepped up aggressively to increase ownership in preparation for Fall and holiday demand. Some of this may be due to some supply already on hand with current milk production sufficient for bottling and manufacturing. Schools will reopen in a few weeks with fluid milk plants increasing bottling to supply school accounts. This will reduce the volume of milk available for manufacturing and could tighten supply at a time when demand improves.

Tuesday is the last day to trade July futures and options with the Federal Order prices to be announced on Wednesday. The corn crop is 68% in good/excellent condition compared to 55% a year ago. The soybean crop is in 67% good/excellent condition compared to 52% a year ago.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.59
6 Month:	$20.58
9 Month:	$19.97
12 Month:	$19.54

CHEESE

There was concern cheese prices could slip during spot trading, but buyers were more aggressively looking for cheese. This could be the trend as the calendar moves to August and seasonal buying increases from packagers and recutters as they prepare for the holidays. Cheese prices have yet to break out of the trend and move higher. Until then traders will be cautious over the upside price potential.

BUTTER

The butter price was expected to trend higher due to the strength seen since the beginning of the year. However, the price has stabilized recently in a sideways pattern with buyers and sellers comfortable with supply. Higher inventory and steady churning leave sufficient butter available to the market.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.1225, November soybeans closed down 9.00 cents at $10.3950 and December soybean meal closed down $1.20 per ton at $323.50. September Chicago wheat closed up 7.50 cents at $5.3100. October live cattle closed down $1.75 at $186.80. September crude oil is down $1.24 per barrel at $75.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 48 points at 40,540 with the NASDAQ up 12 points at 17,370.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Traders Cautiously Buy Milk Futures

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	22 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.70 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.85 Lower
DOW JONES:	7 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	80 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.44 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 2 cents closing at $1.95 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price increased by 0.50 cent closing at $1.9750 with no loads traded. The dry whey price was unchanged at 57 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures were under pressure overnight and through the morning but moved into positive territory after spot trading. Futures are unchanged to 9 cents higher. The butter price slipped 0.25 cent closing at $3.0875 with two loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased by 0.75 cent closing at $1.24 with nine loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 1.00 cent lower to 0.90 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.45 cent lower to 0.75 cent higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Early Pressure On Milk Futures

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	16 to 20 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$4.00 to $5.00 Lower
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Milk prices gained last week on increased optimism. The milk production report showed output down 1%, leaving less milk on the market. Milk production is not expected to exceed last year's level anytime soon. The cold storage report showed cheese inventory below a year ago. This provided support to milk futures. Stronger cash prices for the week added to the support. Buyers of the underlying cash may soon turn more aggressive if they want to purchase ahead of the increase in seasonal demand. This would provide further support to milk prices.

CHEESE:

The block cheese price has remained in a range since mid-May. The barrel price has rebounded from the low on July 12. Traders anticipate increasing prices as demand improves during the second half of the year supporting milk futures. Cheese inventory below a year ago is adding to the idea of higher prices ahead.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain in a range near term. Inventory is higher than a year ago leaving more supply available as demand improves seasonally. The cream supply is tightening but there remains sufficient volume for active churning. 

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fluid Milk Sales Increase 0.3%

MILK

Both Class III and Class IV futures increased this week with Class III outpacing Class IV. Cheese prices showed greater gains with dry whey adding to the strength. September and October Class III futures closed the week solidly above $21.00 with prices nearing the same level as Class IV contracts. Traders were bullish as dry whey showed strength. Fluid milk sales in May were above a year ago at 0.3% higher, which has been rare for quite some time. Sales of whole milk increased by 1.8%. Flavored whole milk sales declined by 12.9%. Reduced fat was down by 5.4%; low fat was down by 1.8%; fat-free skim declined by 13.3%; flavored fat-reduced milk increased by 3.5%; buttermilk declined by 1.0% with other fluid milk product sales up 45.0%. Organic whole milk sales increased by 20.2%; organic flavored whole milk jumped by 31.1%; organic reduced fat milk increased by 4.9%; organic low fat declined by 11.4%; organic fat-free skim milk declined by 6.0%. Flavored fat-reduced sales increased by 1.1% with other organic fluid milk product sales up 71.9%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.55
6 Month:	$20.51
9 Month:	$19.91
12 Month:	$19.50

CHEESE

For the week, blocks increased by 6.50 cents with 15 loads traded. The barrel price increased by 6.25 cents with 10 loads traded. The dry whey price increased by 5.25 cents with one load traded. The increase in dry whey this week provided a substantial amount of support. Each 1-cent move in dry whey equates to 6 cents in the Class III price. The increase this week added 31.50 cents to the Class III price calculation. Dry whey moved to the highest price since May 11, 2022.

BUTTER

For the week, butter increased by 1.50 cents with 17 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk gained 3.50 cents with 26 loads traded. Butter price continues to move in a tight range. June inventory was 7% above a year ago and may limit the upside potential.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 10.75 cents per bushel at $4.1000, November soybeans closed down 31.00 cents at $10.4850 and December soybean meal closed down $4.50 per ton at $324.70. September Chicago wheat closed down 14.25 cents at $5.2350. October live cattle closed down $0.05 at $188.55. September crude oil is down $1.83 per barrel at $76.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 654 points at 40,589 with the NASDAQ up 176 points at 17,358.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Pushes Higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	10 Lower
SOYBEANS:	30 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.20 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.10 Higher
DOW JONES:	817 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	265 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.82 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block and barrel cheese prices remained steady Friday at $1.93 and $1.97, respectively. There was one load traded of barrels with an uncovered offer remaining. The dry whey price jumped 3 cents, closing at 57 cents with one load traded. This moves the price back to the highest since May 10, 2022. This provides support to the Class III contracts with futures 1 cent lower to 30 cents higher. The butter pricer slipped by 0.25 cent, closing at $3.09 with no loads traded. There was an offer posted during spot trading pushing the price lower. Grade A nonfat dry milk price increased 0.25 cent, closing at $1.2325 with five loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are unchanged to 0.95 cent lower. Dry whey futures are 0.15 to 0.85 cent higher.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cold Storage Report Provides Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	8 to 12 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

The strength of milk futures overnight may be the reaction to the friendly June Cold Storage report. Cheese inventory declined from May and remains below a year ago. Lower milk production and declining inventory may set the stage for steady to stronger milk prices as the year progresses. Demand seasonally increases during the second half of the year utilizing inventory to supplement fresh production. The lowest monthly dairy cattle slaughter since June 2008 may temper the price potential as increasing cow numbers could mean increased milk production over time. Feed prices are expected to remain lower based on the estimates for crop production.

CHEESE:

The weakness of spot cheese prices could leave buyers less aggressive Friday as they wait to see if sellers will be more aggressive and willing to sell cheese. There is sufficient supply for the current demand. Buyers may look ahead to upcoming demand and purchase on any price weakness.

BUTTER:

The butter price may see further upside potential now that it seems the market has found support. The June butter inventory at 7% above a year ago may limit upside price potential for the time being. A seasonal increase in demand may provide support and result in higher prices. Tighter cream suppies have reduced churning, which may lower the available supply.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Dairy Cattle Slaughter Falls

MILK

Milk futures showed selling pressure in moderate trading volume. The minor weakness of cheese triggered the selling as maybe prices have reached a threshold for now. Now that prices have weakened, sellers may hold back in anticipation of further weakness. The outlook for milk prices through the end of the year will be assessed due to the release of the June Livestock Slaughter report. Dairy cattle slaughter totaled 186,400 head. This was 29,700 head less than in May and 69,300 head lower than in June 2023. This is the lowest monthly dairy cattle slaughter since June 2008. Lower feed prices, high heifer prices, and extra income from beef-on-dairy calves have substantially impacted culling.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.47
6 Month:	$20.41
9 Month:	$19.81
12 Month:	$19.38

CHEESE

The June Cold Storage showed that American cheese inventory declined by 11.3 million pounds from May totaling 804.8 million pounds. This was 6% below a year ago. Swiss cheese inventory totaled 22.0 million pounds. This was an increase of 231,000 pounds from May and was 3% below a year ago. Other cheese inventory totaled 596.5 million pounds, down 127,000 pounds from May and 4% below a year ago. Total cheese inventory was 1.423 billion pounds, down 11.2 million pounds from May, and was 6% below June 2023.

BUTTER

Butter inventory declined but remained higher than a year ago. June inventory totaled 373.5 million pounds, down 6.2 million pounds from May, and is 7% above June 2023. This may limit the upside price potential for butter in the near term.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 2.75 cents per bushel at $4.2075, November soybeans closed up 15.50 cents at $10.7950 and December soybean meal closed up $8.60 per ton at $329.20. September Chicago wheat closed down 9.25 cents at $5.3775. October live cattle closed up $2.33 at $188.60. September crude oil is up $0.61 per barrel at $78.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 81 points at 39,935 with the NASDAQ down 161 points at 17,182.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Slip

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	7 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$8.30 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.85 Higher
DOW JONES:	573 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	195 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.58 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined a penny, closing at $1.93 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price slipped by 0.50 cent, closing at $1.97 with one load traded. There were no unfilled bids or uncovered offers remaining at the close. This was a letdown for traders as selling pressure has pushed Class III futures 2 to 24 cents lower. The dry whey price was steady at 54 cents with no loads traded. The butter price gained 0.25 cent, closing at $3.0925 with no loads traded. There were two unfilled bids and one uncovered offer remaining at the close. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped by 0.50 cent closing at $1.23 with no loads traded. All in all, it was a benign day in the spot market. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 1.00 cent lower to 2.00 cents higher. Dry whey futures are unchanged. USDA will release the June Cold Storage and the June Livestock Slaughter reports Thursday afternoon. There will be no Dairy Revenue Protection prices released today.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 30

In California, milk production is seasonally weaker. Handlers convey daytime temperatures in the triple digits continue to negatively impact milk output, fat component levels, and cow comfort. Handlers also indicate July 2024 milk output is below anticipated quantities, and down slightly compared to July 2023 milk output. Milk volumes are seasonally tighter in the state. However, stakeholders note small improvements in milk availability recently due to some unplanned downtime from processing equipment issues. Spot milk sales at slightly under Class III prices are noted. Demand for Class III is strong. Demands for all other Classes are steady. 

Farm level milk output in Arizona is weaker. Stakeholders convey spot load availability is tight. Demands for all Classes are steady. 

In New Mexico, milk production is trending weaker. However, Manufacturers indicate milk volumes are sufficiently meeting production needs. Demands for all Classes are unchanged. 

Although farm level milk output in the Pacific Northwest is weaker, handlers indicate milk output is within anticipated summer volumes. Milk volumes are adequately accommodating production needs. All Class manufacturing demands are steady. 

Milk production continues to weaken in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. Stakeholders note Colorado milk volumes and spot load availability are tighter than the usual seasonal trends. In the Idaho/Utah area, planned downtime for processing equipment maintenance is anticipated to increase available spot market loads temporarily. All Class demands are steady. 

Cream is generally tight throughout the region, and demand is mixed. Some stakeholders convey interest from buyers in the neighboring region is strong. Cream multiples moved higher on the bottom end of both ranges. Condensed skim milk is generally tight. Demand for condensed skim milk is strong. 

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cold Storage, Livestock Slaughter Reports Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	2 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Stronger butter and cheese prices supported the market Wednesday. This may carry over into Thursday ahead of spot trading with the anticipation of further gains. Traders will be cautious in Class III futures as the inability of cheese prices to hold the highs during spot trading may indicate buyers have reached a threshold. Milk production continues to run below a year ago. However, there is sufficient milk available for demand. In a few weeks, more milk will begin to be diverted to bottling as they prepare for the upcoming school year. This will tighten the milk supply available for manufacturing. At the same time, demand for manufactured dairy products should begin to increase as the industry prepares for fall and holiday demand. USDA will release the June Livestock Slaughter report Thursday, which is expected to show dairy cattle slaughter below a year ago.

CHEESE:

Cheese inventory has not exceeded the previous year and is not expected to be higher on the June Cold Storage report released Thursday afternoon. This could further support the market. Inventory could decline more rapidly if demand follows the usual pattern. If milk production remains below a year ago, manufacturing supplies might tighten supporting higher prices.

BUTTER:

Butter inventory is expected to be higher than a year ago on the June Cold Storage report. However, that may not have much influence on the market as inventory should decline seasonally during the second half of the year. Retail butter demand has slowed recently but is expected to increase from now through the end of the year.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Traders Showed Optimism for Higher Prices

MILK

Most milk futures were higher into the close. Some pressure remained on later contracts, likely due to cheese prices not holding the highs during spot trading. The June Milk Production report showed output down 0.8% and was within expectations. Milk production last week was steady and lower depending on the region and the ability to keep cows comfortable during hot weather. There is sufficient supply for bottling and manufacturing leaving the market comfortable. However, it is nearing the month of August during which buyers of cheese and butter generally become more aggressive as they prepare for Fall and holiday demand.

The August Class III September and October contracts moved solidly above $21.00 supported by further strength of cheese prices. USDA will release the June Cold Storage report which is not expected to show an inventory increase over a year ago. The June Livestock Slaughter report will be released and should reveal the slower level of dairy cattle slaughter.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.49
6 Month:	$20.45
9 Month:	$19.85
12 Month:	$19.45

CHEESE

Cheese production has been running steadily in previous weeks as plants receive sufficient supply to keep production schedules full. The milk supply has tightened with spot milk prices steady with class to as much as $1.50 above. Plants are not receiving calls offering extra milk but need to call around to find what they need. Spot cheese prices have increased this week but remain in the recent sideways trading range. Prices may have reached a level at which selling may become more aggressive.

BUTTER

Buyers have not turned aggressive but may feel the price may not decline further. This could result in more aggressive buying as they take advantage of the lower price. Retail and food service demand has been flat recently. Spot butter price reflects this demand leaving the buyers complacent. The tightening milk supply has reduced the availability of cream for churning.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up .75 cent per bushel at $4.1800, November soybeans closed down 11.50 cents at $10.6400 and December soybean meal closed up $1.50 per ton at $320.60. September Chicago wheat closed up 4.25 cents at $5.4700. October live cattle closed up $0.15 at $186.28. September crude oil is up $0.63 per barrel at $77.59. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 504 points at 39,854 with the NASDAQ down 655 points at 17,324.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - All Spot Dairy Categories Show Strength

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	1 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.70 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.47 Higher
DOW JONES:	300 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	486 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.87 Higher

Midday Market Update:

The block cheese pricer increased a penny to $1.94 with three loads traded. The price initially increased to $1.9525 before sellers became more aggressive. The barrel cheese price increased by 1.50 cents closing at $1.9750 with five loads traded. The price initially increased to $1.98 before more aggressive selling took the price off the high. This may be a limiting factor for the differed contracts. The nearby August and September Class III contracts retain double-digit gains. Futures range from 5 cents lower to 28 cents higher. The dry whey price increased a penny closing at 54 cents with no loads traded. The butter price increased by 1.50 cents closing at $3.09 with six loads traded. Nonfat dry milk increased by 1.50 cents closing at $1.2350 with 123 loads traded. Class IV futures are unchanged to 8 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.55 to 4.47 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.25 to 4.00 cents higher.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Uncertain Over Continued Cheese Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Higher
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Milk production for June was about as expected, leaving little reason for the traders to get excited. The strength of cheese on Tuesday may have limited upside potential unless buyers turn their attention to demand later in the year. The current cheese prices are reasonable and buyers may become more aggressive as they desire to increase cheese supply. Milk production continues to run below a year ago, which was expected in June and may remain that way through the rest of the year. Class III futures continue to slowly increase, improving the outlook for milk prices as the year progresses.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices increased Tuesday but will need to see further strength to break out of the sideways trading range they have been in. Cheese production has remained steady as sufficient milk has been available for manufacturing. Cheese inventory has not been growing which may provide further support as the demand increases seasonally.

BUTTER:

The recent decline in the butter price has not increased the buying interest very much. It was anticipated buyers would purchase on the weakness to increase supply for the Fall and holiday demand. Trading has been active as sellers continue to offer loads to the spot market. This leaves buyers complacent as supply is readily available.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Milk Production Down 1.0%

MILK

Today's September and October Class III milk futures contracts moved above $21.00. It was a new contract high for October but shy of a new high for September. The market is anticipating stronger underlying cash prices as the summer progresses. USDA released the June Milk Production report which showed milk decreasing as expected. Milk production in the top 24 states totaled 18.0 billion pounds, down 0.8% from a year ago. Milk output in May was revised to 18.8 billion pounds, down 0.8% from May 2023. Milk production per cow totaled 2,025 pounds, down 8 pounds from June 2023. Cow numbers totaled 8.89 million head, down 37,000 from the previous year, but 2,000 more than May.

U.S. milk production totaled 28.767 billion pounds, down 1.0% from June 2023. Milk production per cow was 6 pounds lower than a year ago. Cow numbers increased by 2,000 head from May. There were 17 of the top 24 states which showed decreased milk production from a year ago. The largest decline was in New Mexico with a decrease of 12.5% followed by Georgia with a decrease of 8.1%. South Dakota showed an increase of 8.3% followed by Florida with an increase of 4.9%. The rest of the gains were seen in Texas with a gain of 3.1%; Washington up 1.7%; Iowa up 1.2%; Wisconsin up 0.9%; and Oregon unchanged.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.45
6 Month:	$20.42
9 Month:	$19.80
12 Month:	$19.41

CHEESE

Cheese prices showed strength as buyers became more aggressive today, possibly fearing a greater slowdown in milk production than anticipated through the summer. The supply could tighten as inventory may decline more rapidly than usual. Milk production running below a year earlier this year has resulted in cheese inventory running slightly below a year ago.

BUTTER

Butter held today with business being done. Buyers are not concerned over supply as sellers continue to offer butter to the market. Some butter has been purchased ahead for contracted amounts for the third and fourth quarters with buyers purchasing supply when available without chasing the market higher.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.1725, November soybeans closed up 6.75 cents at $10.7550 and December soybean meal closed down $.30 per ton at $319.10. September Chicago wheat closed down 5.25 cents at $5.4275. October live cattle closed up $1.53 at $186.13. September crude oil is down $1.44 per barrel at $76.96. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 57 points at 40,358 with the NASDAQ down 10 points at 17,997.

June Milk Production down 0.8 Percent

June Milk Production down 0.8 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during June totaled 18.0 billion pounds, down 0.8 percent from June 2023. May revised production, at 18.8 billion pounds, was down 0.8 percent from May 2023. The May revision represented a decrease of 30 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  

Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,025 pounds for June, 8 pounds below June 2023.   

The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.89 million head, 37,000 head less than June 2023, but 2,000 head more than May 2024.   

April-June Milk Production down 0.8 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during the April - June quarter totaled 57.5 billion pounds, down 0.8 percent from the April - June quarter last year.  

The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.33 million head, 3,000 head less than the January - March quarter, and 76,000 head less than the same period last year. 

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Cheese Posts Strong Gains

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	5 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.50 Higher
DOW JONES:	6 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	20 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.38 Lower

Midday Market Update:

The block cheese price increased by 5.50 cents, closing at $1.93 with seven loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 3.50 cents, closing at $1.96 with one load traded. There were unfilled bids and uncovered offers in both categories at the close of spot trading. The dry whey price increased by 0.50 cent, closing at 53 cents with no loads traded. This moves the dry whey price to the high of February 15th. If the price increases further, it will be at the highest price since June 2022. Class III futures are 11 cents lower to 20 cents higher. The butter price remained unchanged at $3.0750 with five loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 2.25 cents closing at $1.22 with nine loads traded. Class IV futures are 1-13 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.05 cents lower to 1.45 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.50-1.25 cents higher. USDA will release the June Milk Production report this afternoon. I estimate milk production to be 0.8 percent below a year ago. Cow numbers will be difficult to predict, but I estimate they will be higher than May.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - USDA to Release June Milk Production Report

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$0.50 to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	4 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures found strength from Monday's increase in spot cheese prices. The October contract is knocking on the door of $21.00 with the overnight price ranging from $20.84 to $20.96. October made a new contract high on Monday, keeping the uptrend intact. The USDA will release the June Milk Production report Tuesday afternoon. I estimate milk production to be 0.8% below a year ago. The change in cow numbers from May will be the wild card. Dairy cattle slaughter has been slowing, which could indicate cow numbers may have increased from May. Lower feed prices may have farms holding onto cows as the outlook for milk prices has improved. There will be no Dairy Revenue Protection prices released today.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy and have yet to break out of a range. Demand should slowly improve as the summer progresses and buyers look ahead to upcoming demand. There is little concern over a supply shortage, even though milk production is slowing. More emphasis on cheese production seems to be moving toward other cheese varieties rather than American cheese as indicated by the dairy products reports.

BUTTER:

The butter price holding on Monday may indicate sellers are unwilling to offer butter any lower. This may increase the buying interest on the spot market as buyers want to take advantage of the lower price.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Summary - Class III Milk Futures Nearly Reach $21.00

MILK

Class III milk futures are trying to move higher and seem to be looking for any reason to make that happen. The September and October Class III futures nearly reached $21.00. The block cheese price is at the bottom end of the trading range, but nearby milk futures are at the top end of the range. The anticipation is for milk prices to increase as the summer progresses and milk supply declines. The increase in demand will determine the extent of the rise in prices. Corn futures showed significant strength today instead of the weakness expected Sunday night. Further gains might be seen as the good/excellent condition of the crop declined by 1% last week to 67%. However, it remains 10% above a year ago which may limit the upside price potential. The soybean crop is in 68% good/excellent condition, the same as the previous week. This is 14% better than a year ago. Grain prices are not expected to increase to any great extent, which would leave feed prices reasonable and milk production steady.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.28
6 Month:	$20.28
9 Month:	$19.70
12 Month:	$19.34

CHEESE

Cheese buyers were more aggressive as they wanted to take advantage of the current prices to increase ownership of supplies. They may not continue to be very aggressive as the cheese supply remains available. However, there may be more interest in buying in preparation for increased demand as the year progresses. Prices remain in a range as buyers and sellers are comfortable at the current level.

BUTTER

The butter prices held steady with business being done. This may indicate to buyers that sellers do not need to reduce the price to move butter. This may bring buyers into the market more aggressively as the price may have reached support. Churning is slowing due to reduced cream availability. This may provide support as inventory may begin to decline.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 10.25 cents per bushel at $4.1500, November soybeans closed up 32.75 cents at $10.6875 and December soybean meal closed up $11.90 per ton at $319.40. September Chicago wheat closed up 5.25 cents at $5.4800. October live cattle closed up $1.13 at $184.60. September crude oil is down $0.27 per barrel at $78.37. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 128 points at 40,415 with the NASDAQ up 281 points at 18,008.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Finds Support

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	8 Higher
SOYBEANS:	17 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.60 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.67 Higher
DOW JONES:	114 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	251 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.10 Lower

Midday Market Update:

Spot cheese prices increased from more aggressive buying. The block cheese price increased a penny to $1.8750 with four loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 1.25 cents, closing at $1.9250 with two loads traded. Even though the gains were rather minor, Class III futures are 1 to 27 cents higher. Further support came from the dry whey price increasing by 0.75 cent closing at 52.50 cents. This is the highest price since Feb. 23. The butter price remained unchanged at $3.0750 with six loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.1975 with no loads traded. Class IV futures have only traded in the December contract with the price down a penny. Butter futures are 2.00 cents lower to 1.47 cents higher. Dry whey futures are unchanged to 0.12 cent lower.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - No Overnight Trading Activity

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Futures:	12 to 18 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$5 to $7 Higher
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Traders were unconcerned about taking a position in the overnight trade. Bids and offers were placed and left without a desire to get in or out of the market. Trading activity is expected to be light ahead of spot trading as traders are uncertain about the direction of the underlying cash market. Buyers of cheese and butter have not become aggressive due to a sufficient supply being available. Traders will wait for direction from spot trading and the June Milk Production report to be released Tuesday afternoon. Overall milk production continues to decline, but the supply has not tightened sufficiently to increase the concern over tighter supplies. Milk futures are expected to be choppy following the underlying cash.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may remain choppy as buyers and sellers seem comfortable at current prices. Buyers are not concerned over supply and manufacturers have the supply they need to sell. This indicates the market is balanced for the time being. The demand for some varieties of cheese is improving, but seasonal buying has not surfaced to any extent. The milk supply has tightened but is sufficient for demand.

BUTTER:

The butter price has declined to a level at which buyers may step up to purchase supply for later demand. Churning is slowing as the cream supply tightens. USDA will release the June Cold Storage report Thursday, showing the inventory available to supplement fresh butter production.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Active Butter Trade During the Week

MILK

It was a positive week for Class III futures even though futures fell back today. The September, October, and November contracts closed above $20.00. The October and later contracts established new contract highs. Underlying cheese prices were mixed with much of the support from the dry whey price moving to the highest level since February 22. There is support under the market, but milk prices are moving in a calculated manner rather than being moved by perception. The anticipation is that milk prices may increase as the summer progresses and milk production slows. That may or may not be the case depending on demand.

Milk output and demand are somewhat balanced keeping cash buyers comfortable at the current level. Limited attention is being given in the news to the impact of bird flu on milk production. Farms are doing a good job with biosecurity and reducing the impact on the infected cows. USDA will release the June Milk Production report which will provide the change in cow numbers and milk production compared to June 2023. The milk production and the monthly slaughter report will indicate the potential for milk production if production per cow improves later in the year.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month:	$20.12
6 Month:	$20.14
9 Month:	$19.59
12 Month:	$19.25

CHEESE

For the week, blocks declined 2.50 cents with 23 loads traded. The average price for the week is $1.8630. Barrels gained 6.25 cents with 22 loads traded. The average price for the week is $1.8980. The block price ranged from $1.86 to $1.8650 throughout the week. Barrels had a wider swing with the $1.9125 holding from Wednesday through Friday. Buyers and sellers took care of business as needed rather than trying to outbid each other over the concern of potentially tighter supply.

BUTTER

For the week, butter declined 2.50 cents with 69 loads traded. The weekly average price is $3.1140. It is surprising sellers needed to move that amount of butter. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased by 1.75 cents with 10 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.1795. Price fell to the lowest level since June 25 breaking below the recent trading range. Buyers may step in to take advantage of the lower price next week as they look to increase ownership of butter for later demand.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 0.25 cent per bushel at $4.0475, November soybeans closed down 7.00 cents at $10.3600 and December soybean meal closed down $4.00 per ton at $307.50. September Chicago wheat closed up 7.50 cents at $5.4275. August live cattle closed up $0.85 at $183.10. September crude oil is down $2.66 per barrel at $78.64. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 377 points at 40,288 with the NASDAQ is down 144 points at 17,727.