Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Raises the Class III Price Substantially

MILK

USDA released the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today which showed the estimate for milk production this year unchanged at 227.3 billion pounds. The production estimate for 2025 was left unchanged at 229.3 billion pounds. Exports on milk on a fat basis use were raised by 200 million pounds this month, totaling 11.2 billion pounds. Exports were raised 300 million pounds, totaling 11.5 billion pounds. Exports on a skim-solids basis were unchanged at 49.3 billion pounds this year and were raised by 300 million pounds to 50.5 billion pounds for 2025. USDA raised its Class III price estimate by $1.15 this year to an average price of $17.90 per cwt and raised the price next year by $1.40 to an average of $17.70. The average Class IV price was raised this year by $0.25 per cwt to $20.50 from the May estimate and raised by $0.15 per cwt to $20.10 for 2025. The all-milk price was raised to $21.60, up $0.40 from the previous estimate for this year, and raised $0.60 to an average of $21.50 for 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $20.53
6 Month: $20.44
9 Month: $19.98
12 Month: $19.70

CHEESE

USDA was liberal with its expectations for cheese prices. It raised the average price by 9.50 cents per pound to $1.79 per pound for this year and increased its estimate by 13 cents per pound for next year to an average of $1.7950 per pound. This year's average dry whey price was raised by 3.50 cents, to 43.50 cents per pound. The average price for next year was raised to 40 cents, up 2.50 cents from the May estimate.

BUTTER

USDA did not raise the butter price as much as anticipated with the average now at $2.97 per pound this year, up 3.50 cents from the May estimate, and raised 3 cents to an average of $2.9450 per pound for next year. The nonfat dry milk price was the category that was raised the least with an increase of 1.50 cents to $1.1750 this year and remained unchanged at $1.14 per pound for 2025.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

July corn closed up 4.75 cents per bushel at $4.5425, July soybeans closed down 0.75 cent at $11.7725, and July soybean meal closed up $0.90 per ton at $360.20. July Chicago wheat closed down 9.50 cents at $6.1700. August live cattle closed down $0.60 at $178.33. July crude oil is up $0.53 per barrel at $78.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 89 points at 38,836 points with the NASDAQ up 373 points at 17,716 points.




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