Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Support May Carry Over

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures certainly came to life last week with substantial gains. The strength of underlying cash prices turned traders into more aggressive buyers. Overall, the fundamentals have not changed. Milk supply is sufficient for current demand with production steadily improving through spring flush. The strength does not seem to be related to the avian flu in dairy cattle as that did not have any impact for the first few weeks after discovery. The strength of underlying cash seems to be the result of buyers needing to fill orders rather than purchasing to build inventory. Traders may be a bit more cautious Tuesday ahead of spot trading to wait and see if prices will hold.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices moving back to the levels they were at about a month ago is certainly positive. Maybe the low prices are curing low prices, but we are not out of the woods yet. Lower prices have not stimulated consumer demand much as demand has not changed over the past two months. Spot milk remains available to manufacturers at a discount. This may keep the upside price potential limited.

BUTTER:

The price is heading for $3.00 as demand has remained strong after the holiday. Buyers remain aggressive as they desire to build inventory for late demand. Churning is active as there are plentiful cream supplies. Any price weakness may be short-lived




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