Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 6 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 7 to 9 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures have been regaining some losses with contracts likely seeing further strength Wednesday moving into the milk production report. Most often, the milk production report is not a large market mover, but much emphasis will be placed on the level of production and the change in cow numbers. I estimate milk production to be down 1% compared to last year after the adjustment is made for Leap Day with cow numbers down 10,000 head from the previous month. Overall, milk production is slowly increasing as the market moves through spring flush.

CHEESE:

Prices are expected to remain choppy. Even if the milk production report is friendly, cheese buyers may not become more aggressive. The report is for February and that has already had an impact on cheese production and the production of other dairy products. It should already be factored into the cash market.

BUTTER:

The butter price may stabilize for a period as demand for Easter has been accounted for and regular demand will carry on. Demand has been good with manufacturers wanting to build some inventory. Indications are that inventory continues to lag from a year ago. The February Cold Storage report will be released on Monday, confirming the level of supply. 




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