Thursday, March 28, 2024

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Remain Under Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Class III milk futures suffered a blow Wednesday due to the decrease in cheese prices. Traders had anticipated recent reports and the discovery of bird flu in a few dairy herds would provide greater support to the market. However, overall milk production is increasing seasonally and buyers of dairy products on the daily spot market have not been aggressive. April through June Class III futures made new contract lows overnight as selling pressure continued. Trading volume was higher than usual again for an overnight session. Several reports may impact the market. The Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports may provide an indication of feed prices for the coming year. Thursday afternoon, USDA will release the February Agricultural Prices report, which will provide the average prices for the month used in the calculation of income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. None of these reports will be direct market movers.

CHEESE:

Traders will be apprehensive over spot trading Thursday. It has been very unpredictable as cheese prices have been choppy. Buyers and sellers of cheese are taking care of business on an as-needed basis rather than on perception. Buyers want to keep a supply on hand but do not want to build inventory ahead of time and pay for storage. With current supply readily available for demand, there is little concern over supply tightness.

BUTTER:

Butter price seems comfortable in the current price range it has been in for the past month. Even though the higher demand period for Easter has been filled, cash price remains supported as regular demand is expected to remain strong, and buyers have been building inventory as a hedge against tighter supply and higher prices, preparing for later demand. 




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