Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Spot Milk Price Declines

MILK

Milk futures were higher across the board Wednesday in both classes of milk. Underlying spot prices were stronger in all categories, causing buying interest. However, the gains of the past two days in underlying cash have been met with limited upside price movement. Traders remain concerned about upside price potential.

South dairy trade numbers were released for prices of dairy products moving through ports in Argentina and Uruguay over a two-week period. Dairy products moving through ports in Argentina during Nov. 1-15 totaled 15,157.99 tons to 30 destinations.

Whole milk powder price increased 1% from the previous period at $3,209.11 per ton or $1.46 per pound. Skim milk powder decreased 1.2% to $3,013.82 per ton or $1.37 per pound. Semi-hard cheese decreased 2.8% to $3,973.54 per ton or $1.80 per pound. Hard cheese gained 2.5% to $6,031.31 per ton or $2.74 per pound. Butter decreased 0.9% to $4,189.98 per pound or $1.90 per pound. Dairy products moving through ports in Uruguay from Dec. 1-15 totaled 8,876.70 tons to 36 destinations.

Whole milk powder price increased 3.8% from the previous period, totaling $3,228.23 per ton or $1.46 per pound. Skim milk powder decreased 7.5% to $3,113.23 per ton or $1.41 per pound. Semi-hard cheese decreased 10.23% to $4,328.23 per ton or $1.96 per pound. Hard cheese increased 2.9% to $6,231.74 per ton or $2.83 per pound. Butter decreased 5.2% to $4,624.02 per ton or $2.10 per pound.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $15.90
6 Month: $16.57
9 Month: $17.17
12 Month: $17.54

CHEESE

Spot milk prices have decreased significantly over the past weeks with prices now ranging from $2 to $8 below class. Some plants are running lighter production schedules which have put more milk out to the spot market. This weakness is not expected to last very long once the holiday period has passed. Some plants report a seasonal decrease in demand which makes it surprising that cheese buyers have been active during spot trading. There is anticipation there will be some inventory build moving forward.

BUTTER

Cream supplies are abundant, which leaves plentiful supply available for churning. Many plants are running at capacity and having to turn some cream away that is being offered to them. Butter price is holding well for the last week of the year even though inventory is growing. Some purchasing is being made for orders for the first quarter of 2024.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

March corn closed down 3.75 cents per bushel at $4.7650, March soybeans closed up 1.50 cents at $13.2050 and March soybean meal closed down $2.10 per ton at $393.80. March Chicago wheat closed down 13.25 cents at $6.2300. February live cattle closed down $1.13 at $169.28. February crude oil is down $1.74 per barrel at $73.83. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 111 points at 37,657 with the NASDAQ is up 25 points at 15,099.




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