Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Production Report Has Little Impact

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 4 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 9 to 12 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

The November Milk Production report was slightly friendly, but that did not bring buyers into milk futures aggressively in the overnight. Traders will remain cautious as slower overall demand keeps a sufficient supply of milk and dairy products available to the market. The decline of cheese prices Monday is not expected to find strong buyer support from the milk production report. The report was for milk produced in November and the milk has already been absorbed into the market and supply has not tightened. Even though cow numbers are at the lowest level since June 2020, milk per cow has improved with it being at the lowest level since February.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese prices is a reflection of market sentiment. Buyers are not aggressive as they see no need to be. There is sufficient supply for demand. Price may not be low enough to stimulate aggressive buyer interest. USDA will release the November Cold Storage report Friday which is expected to show inventory near the same level it was a year ago.

BUTTER:

The strength of butter is likely limited. Once orders are again filled, buyers will not be aggressive and price will fall back. With current butter production and inventory, buyers see no supply tightness in the foreseeable future. Nonfat dry milk price is expected to remain choppy.




Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Finds More Aggressive Buyer Interest

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 1 Higher SOYBEANS: 5 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...