Thursday, December 21, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - December Futures Show Significant Activity

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:Mixed
Butter Futures:Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:Mixed
Soybean Futures:3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:Mixed
Wheat Futures:3 to 5 Higher

MILK:

The December Class III contract adjusted lower with the release of the weekly AMS prices. It was usual to see a heavy volume of 45 trades in the overnight market in the front-month contract. Class III futures continue to struggle with January through March making new contract lows again Wednesday. Underlying cash cheese is not finding support, keeping pressure on the market. Milk production is not overwhelming the market but remains sufficient for demand. Extra milk that will be available for manufacturing will be handled easily over the holiday period with spot milk prices not expected to be as discounted as they were last year. USDA will release the Livestock Slaughter report for the month of November, which will provide some indication as to the level of slaughter that took place and if low milk prices are having a significant influence on culling. The milk production report did show a decline of 10,000 head from October.

CHEESE:

The hope is that cheese prices do not revisit the lows of early July which could result in a Class III milk price below $15.00 again. There is little to provide support for the market at the present time as we head to the close of the year and a period during which demand slows. There is not much price movement expected for the rest of this week.

BUTTER:

Butter has shown better support than expected, but upside price potential may be limited. No buyers or sellers showing up during spot trading on Wednesday leaves traders guessing as to price direction. There seems to be no urgency to fill orders and no urgency for sellers to move supply. There is a strong possibility price may weaken again before the end of the year.




Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk, Cheese Trading Strong; March Dairy Exports Decline

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