Friday, December 29, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Price Movement May Be Limited

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Lower
Soybean Futures: Steady to 2 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures show little price direction. Underlying cash cheese and dry whey are not providing any consistent support with price remaining choppy. The pattern of limited upside price movement remains intact. Class IV futures have shown limited movement all week even though butter price has increased. Traders remain cautious over continued upside potential. Trading activity is expected to decrease significantly after spot trading as traders will close out their activity for the year. Fundamentals are not expected to change as the market moves into 2024. Much of the same activity is expected as the milk supply is sufficient for demand. USDA will release the November Agricultural Prices report Friday afternoon. This will provide prices used in the calculation of the income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The average soybean meal price used in the calculation may not be released Friday unless FSA makes a special effort to release the price ahead of the new year. Generally, they release the price the day after the report.

CHEESE:

Barrel cheese price could go either way Friday, depending on how aggressive buyers will be. The large number of unfilled bids did not indicate buyers were turning more aggressive, but showed they are willing buyers at the current price level. This may put a floor in the market, but not necessarily higher prices.

BUTTER:

Price has moved back near their previous high since early December. However, it may have a difficult time trending higher as butter production is strong and manufacturers want to limit inventory build. Retain demand is termed as steady.




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