Friday, December 22, 2023

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cold Storage Neutral for Cheese, Bearish for Butter

MILK

Class III milk futures fell for much of the week as cheese prices were unable to find a bottom. Prices have not been able to benefit from a time of year when generally there is a bump in prices as demand is higher. However, sufficient supply and less-than-stellar demand have left the market struggling as buyers have not needed to be aggressive. There has been sufficient supply for demand, which left the market with little reason for concern. Manufacturers wanted to move product as soon as it was produced rather than hold it in inventory and pay for storage. They saw little benefit to holding onto supply for a higher price that was likely not going to develop through the end of the year and possibly a while into next year.

Class IV price will continue to outperform Class III and looks to potentially continue throughout 2024. Dairy markets will be closed Monday in observance of Christmas but will reopen that evening at the usual time.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $15.71
6 Month: $16.41
9 Month: $17.04
12 Month: $17.39

CHEESE

For the week, blocks fell 13 cents with 30 loads traded. Barrels declined 5.75 cents with 62 loads traded. Dry whey declined 1.50 cents with 11 loads traded. Business increased during the week as manufacturers wanted to manage inventory through the end of the year. USDA released the November Cold Storage report which was neutral for cheese. American cheese inventory declined 8.1 million pounds from October, totaling 825.8 million pounds and was 1% above a year earlier. Swiss cheese inventory increased 110,000 pounds from the previous month, totaling 20.9 million pounds but was down 7% from a year ago. Other cheese inventory declined 16.9 million pounds from the previous month to a total of 587.0 million pounds and was 1% below a year ago. Total cheese inventory was 1.434 billion pounds, down 25.0 million pounds from October and steady from a year ago.

BUTTER

For the week, butter gained 6 cents with 13 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk was unchanged for the week with 10 loads traded. Butter inventory in November declined 24.7 million pounds and a 10% decline from October. However, inventory was 8% above a year ago, which is negative and may result in a lower price over the next few weeks.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

March corn closed up .50 cent per bushel at $4.7300, March soybeans closed up 4.50 cents at $13.0625 and March soybean meal closed up $4.70 per ton at $391.10. March Chicago wheat closed up 3.75 cents at $6.1625. February live cattle closed down $0.15 at $168.53. February crude oil is down $0.33 per barrel at $73.56. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 18 points at 37,386 with the NASDAQ is up 29 points at 14,993.




Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk, Cheese Trading Strong; March Dairy Exports Decline

MILK Milk production is mixed across the country with a few areas moving past the spring flush to see production holding steady. Oth...