Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Early Strength in Futures Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 3 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

MILK:

It has been a good week for underlying cash and for milk futures. February Class III moved above $18.00, the highest it has been since Oct. 26. Traders will be cautious over whether price will hold as strength generally has been short-lived. Any weakness of underlying cash may send futures lower quickly. Generally, prices will not rally at this time of year as much of the holiday buying has been completed. There have been some years in which there has been strength but that is generally the result of a tight supply. That is not the case this year as inventory of cheese and butter is slightly higher than a year ago. Milk production is slowly improving, keeping sufficient supply available for demand.

CHEESE:

Prices may have a difficult time seeing much upside potential as buyers will purchase as needed and manufacturers will want to move supply rather than let it build up at this time of year. Cheese demand is steady, but not exceptional. Prices are expected to remain sideways for a time.

BUTTER:

It is unclear just how aggressive buyers will be in the near term. Price has fallen dramatically, likely moving in line with supply and demand. The level of demand through the rest of the year will dictate inventory level at the end of the year and price potential. Price could show further strength Wednesday.




Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - September Fluid Milk Sales Decline 1.6%

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