Thursday, November 9, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Erratic Cheese Price Movement May Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 12 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 6 to 8 Lower

MILK:

Closer months in Class III futures posted nice gains Wednesday with follow-though buying overnight. Traders will remain cautious ahead of spot trading as cheese prices have been erratic. The large price divergence provided no market direction. This may become a normal part of spot trading through the rest of the year. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report Thursday at 11 a.m. CST, which will show their estimates for milk production, milk prices, and production prices for this year and next year. It will also estimate grain production, ending stocks and demand both domestically and internationally. The results may have an impact on feed prices.

CHEESE:

Traders are pondering whether the weakness of blocks will pressure barrels or whether the strength of barrels will support blocks. They run on their own fundamentals rather than a correlation which makes it difficult to anticipate price direction. Price increases have been short-lived, leaving traders cautious and overall negative to the market.

BUTTER:

The decline of price is expected to slow now that price has fallen back to the level of mid-September where the strong price increase began. Price may be near a value level at which buyers and sellers will accomplish business without much price volatility. However, further price weakness is expected. 




Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Fall Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY: CORN: 2 Lower SOYBEANS: 6 Higher SOYBEAN MEAL: ...