Thursday, November 16, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Demand Needs to Improve

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 10 to 12 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $5 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Milk will be more available for manufacturing over the next week as bottling for school accounts has slowed and schools will be closed for Thanksgiving. This extra milk will be handled easily with some plants welcoming the extra milk that might be available below class. This may keep a lid on price potential as cheese production increases. The current supply and demand balance does not favor a higher trend to develop for milk prices. Hopefully, holiday demand will improve more than it currently is, but most of it will be filling regular orders as much of the expected and contracted demand has been filled or in position to fill over the next few weeks. Futures are expected to remain choppy.

CHEESE:

Blocks are in a weaker position than barrels with a supply more than adequate for demand. Cheese production is steady to slowly increasing as milk production increases. Manufacturing plants continue to move supply as quickly as they can to limit inventory growth.

BUTTER:

Price may have found a level at which both buyers and sellers may be comfortable doing business. Most of the orders for the holiday season have been filled with fill-in demand, possibly pushing price higher briefly. However, upside may be limited with further downside possible.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - 2024 Milk Production Lower, But Herd Size Growing

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