Monday, November 13, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Markets May Remain Under Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $6 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Lower

MILK:

There is not much to be expected for price strength. The decline in prices has been brutal with seemingly no end in sight. Aggressive buying in underlying cash has been mostly nonexistent. Any aggressive buying that has strengthened prices has been short-lived. Milk production is adequate for demand. The likelihood of a tight supply is not in the foreseeable future as farms seem to be comfortable with current cow numbers and are working to obtain the most milk they can from those cows. The end of the year and early next year may see lower prices as demand generally slows and prices decline. The inability of prices to increase during the higher demand period as the industry prepared for the holidays does not bode well for milk prices over the next months.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to continue to chop around with little upside potential. Buyers know sellers want to move supply and will wait for the prices they want before purchasing. The fact that barrels are above blocks does not necessarily indicate any potential price direction for either category.

BUTTER:

One would hope the pressure on butter will subside, but the aggressive selling activity may continue pushing price lower than necessary for a period before price stabilizes. Buyers have sufficient supplies on hand, eliminating the need to be aggressive. Thanksgiving supply had been met with much of the needs through the end of the year already fulfilled.




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