Monday, November 6, 2023

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Carton Shortage Impacts Schools

MILK

Schools are now facing a milk carton shortage that could last from a few weeks to several months. Apparently, the demand for half-pint milk cartons is significantly higher than expected, according to Pactiv Evergreen, the leading manufacturer of milk cartons for North America. The immediate impact will be felt in New York, Pennsylvania, California and Washington. School officials are scrambling to find alternatives for cartons or limiting choices for milk.

Not only are schools impacted but hospitals, nursing homes, and prisons may also be affected. Milk processors are working with other package suppliers to resolve the problem as quickly as possible. Who would have thought something like this would impact the dairy industry? Milk prices are struggling enough without this being added on top of it. The January Class III futures contract established a new low setting a greater negative tone to the market.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.16
6 Month: $17.59
9 Month: $17.86
12 Month: $18.09

CHEESE

The weakness of barrel cheese was a surprise but should not have been unexpected. The market is in a bearish supply mode with milk production easily meeting the demand of bottling and manufacturing. Moving through the months ahead of the holiday period has not tightened supply sufficiently to cause buyers to be more aggressive. This may not take place anymore this year as quite a bit of preholiday buying is finished.

BUTTER

Price is now nearly falling as quickly as it increased. Buyers are still purchasing but only at lower prices. Sellers are now leap-frogging over each other to sell product before price moves lower and increasing the negativity of the market. Butter futures stubbornly holding a large discount to cash were a foretaste of what the market was anticipated to do over time. That is why futures are not falling as much as would be anticipated due to the market having weakness already factored in.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed steady at $4.7725, January soybeans closed up 12.25 cents at $13.6400 and December soybean meal closed down $4.60 per ton at $437.50. December Chicago wheat closed up 3.25 cents at $5.7575. December live cattle closed down $2.55 at $181.33. December crude oil is up $0.39 per barrel at $80.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 34 points at 34,096 with the NASDAQ is up 41 points at 13,519.




Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Dry Whey Supports Class III Futures

MILK: Class III futures found some buying interest as steady cheese prices were not viewed as bearish due to the strength of dry whe...