Friday, November 3, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

The strength in Class III milk futures might be erased Friday as the market shows no direction. Underlying cash may remain choppy with no direction as buyers and sellers take care of business without fanfare. Milk production shows no signs of tightening as cow numbers remain somewhat stable and production per cow slowly improves. Most areas of the country have been able to harvest good forage crops this year even though some have had less quantity. This should keep milk production strong and farmers less willing to cull. Bottling demand is steady. Cheese demand is slowly improving overall with some varieties showing strong demand. With slower exports and strong cheese production, there is little reason for buyers to be concerned over supply.

CHEESE:

Cheese futures have premium built into the market with price reaching $1.90 by fall of 2024. That will change according to market fundamentals and hopefully prices will be able to move higher. Export demand will be a key driving force of the strength of cheese prices. Holiday demand is ahead, but much of the cheese has been ordered with contracts already fulfilled or will be fulfilled over the next month.

BUTTER:

Buyers may hold back as butter price weakens. However, sellers may not have an overabundance of product to move. It is interesting that exports have been very depressed, yet price moved to a record high and remains high. Domestic demand has been strong and remains that way.




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