Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Unusual Trading Activity in Later Milk Contracts

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

It seems Class III milk futures are moving to eliminate all the of the gains realized recently. The outlook for milk prices has dimmed as Class III milk futures fall back and Class IV futures stall. Overnight trading activity was unusual with somewhat active trading taking place in the third quarter of next year with contracts 7- to 13-cents lower. The September 2024 contract had 39 trades taking place. Milk production remains steady with cow numbers lower than a year ago but holding the past few months. Farmers have feed available and lower-producing cows have been removed, leaving farmers focusing on efficiency. Farms exiting the business are having most of their animals moved to another operation. Culling may increase if milk prices swing lower for a few months again.

CHEESE:

Buyers of cheese do not need to bid aggressively for supply as sellers remain willing to move cheese to market. Sellers of barrels have not been aggressive, while blocks have seen sellers lower their offers to move supply. Manufacturers do not want their inventory to build and are not interested in holding for higher prices.

BUTTER:

Price may be developing a range in which buyers and sellers will take care of business. It is unlikely price will remain at the current level indefinitely, but it may hold for a time. The level of production, inventory, and demand have set a higher level for price for the time being. The September Cold Storage report will be released Wednesday and is expected to show a decrease in butter inventory.




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