Thursday, October 19, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - September Milk Production Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have been finding some support mostly from dry whey and then from higher cheese prices Wednesday. Traders will remain cautious as demand does not seem to have increased significantly. However, buyers may need more supply to satisfy an increase in holiday demand. USDA will release the September Milk Production report Thursday afternoon, which is expected to see milk production slightly lower than a year ago. I estimate production to be down 0.4%. The uncertainty will be the cow numbers from the previous month. I estimate cow number to decline 2,000 head from August, but this is just a guess as it could go either way based on what was released last month.

CHEESE:

The strength of cheese Wednesday might have been the beginning of a short-term trend higher. I say short-term as demand will need to improve not only for the holidays but thereafter to see much upside price potential. Dry whey may continue to trend higher but that will not be without price retracements at times.

BUTTER:

Buyers are willing to purchase supply at the current level, which indicates price may remain high for a longer period. Demand from the feed service industry and retail is steady. However, retail demand is expected to improve over the next month.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

MILK: Traders were uncertain as to how to interpret the moving of spot prices today. Pressure was put on Class III futures after spo...