Friday, October 20, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Stronger Cash Prices Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 5 Higher

MILK:

The milk production report was neutral to the market, which provides some support to futures. The ultimate support comes from underlying cash, which seems to be developing due to increased buyer interest. Cow numbers being lower than August and a year ago and milk production in the country being down 0.2% may indicate farms in a holding pattern for the time being. Milk supply is sufficient, but not overwhelming. Spot milk is still being offered at a premium to class. Milk production is slowly improving.

CHEESE:

The buying interest in cheese seems to be improving for the time being. This may be limited unless demand improves moving toward the holidays. It is certainly good to see that sellers have not been as aggressive in the spot market, which may indicate supply and demand may be in better balance. The September USDA Cold Storage report next Wednesday will provide a better idea of supply.

BUTTER:

Price may be carving out a sideways trading range. Last year, price moved higher based on the fear of a shortage moving into the holidays. That has not been the case this year. Price has moved higher based on supply and demand with demand reducing inventory rapidly in August. The increase this year was real and not a perception. This could keep price higher for an extended period.




Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Spot Milk Prices Showed Limited Changes This Week

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