Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - No Overnight Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures: 6 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Traders are not fond of steady underlying cash and sell futures on the concern the market may have found price resistance. It was not long ago that steady underlying prices were bullish on the market and were viewed as support. Higher cash prices for cheese and butter in comparison to world prices may limit upside potential as export demand has slowed. August milk is mostly priced and will show limited price movement even if underlying cash moves significantly. The positive aspect is the August Class III price will be about $3.00 higher than in July. Light volume trade is expected ahead of cash trade today.

CHEESE:

Cheese production is steady even though milk volumes are decreasing. Plants are relying mostly on patron milk or contracted supplies as spot milk prices are higher than they had been in the first half of the year with spot milk not as ample as it had been. Inventory is declining seasonally and running below year earlier levels. This should provide support to prices.

BUTTER:

Price is holding its own as supply and demand seem to be balanced. A tighter cream supply has reduced churning output but is not expected to tighten the market to any significant extent. Price is expected to hold or move higher slowly as buyers look ahead to later demand. Inventory is declining.




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