Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Underlying Cash Strength Anticipated

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 20 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 10 to 15 Higher
Butter Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 10 to 12 Lower
Soybean Futures: 12 to 15 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 8 to 12 Lower

MILK:

The explosive nature of the milk market Monday carried over into the night trade. This was expected as there was a pool of contracts that wanted to be traded Monday, but due to some contracts being limit-up, they could not be executed. These were traded in the overnight session when they could be done. Strong prices in the overnight session may not be a true representation of morning trade as the market might settle down ahead of the spot trading period. However, it is unlikely futures will trade lower ahead of cash. It has been an incredible run of prices over the past week, leaving the market ripe for a retracement at some point, but maybe not today unless spot prices dictate weakness.

CHEESE:

The strength of cheese has increased buyer interest as the emotional element of fear took over. The fear of being left behind to purchase cheese at substantially higher prices. However, that was all some buyers could do. Some of that could not be accomplished in barrels Monday as the price increased 17.50 cents with no loads traded. Buyers are finding themselves empty-handed with prices substantially higher. This may push prices even higher.

BUTTER:

Price has been increasing, but on a more calculated basis. However, the seasonal buying has kicked in, which may move price steadily higher for a period. Churning has slowed as cream supply has tightened. The June Cold Storage report will show whether inventory has increased over the previous month and year.




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