Thursday, July 13, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese May See Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 4 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures: 12 to 18 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures took a beating Wednesday, but there was little follo-through overnight. Mixed trading activity may take place ahead of spot trade as price could go either way. The selling pressure on cheese Wednesday could result in buyers holding back again to see how aggressive traders are going to be. Milk continues to flow, keeping all areas of the industry satisfied. There is no concern over milk supply with some milk still being dumped due to the inability to process the volume. It is unclear whether increased culling is having an impact on production or if those moving to slaughter are being replaced with higher production cows at the present time. USDA reduced their estimate for milk prices this year and next year, casting a bearish cloud over the market.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese Wednesday may cause buyers to pull back a bit as they see sellers stepping up to move more supply at the higher prices. Buyers will be willing to purchase but at lower prices as they see no real need to become very aggressive due to plentiful supply. Buyers may be turning their attention to later demand but may not be aggressive in increasing ownership.

BUTTER:

Price may hold and slowly improve seasonally. Supply is higher than last year with churning active. Price increase may be slow with continued choppy movement. There is no concern over supply as there was last year.




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