Monday, July 31, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Expected to Show Some Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:Steady to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:Steady to 4 Higher
Butter Futures:Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:10 to 13 Lower
Soybean Futures:15 to 25 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:$3 to $5 Lower
Wheat Futures:15 to 20 Lower

MILK:

Traders will be cautious but anxious as they anticipate spot trading movement. The strength of cheese Friday was a little surprising, resulting in the correction of Class III milk futures. However, futures have a long way to go to regain the losses of early last week. There are reports of continued heavy culling and tightening of milk supply. There remains sufficient milk available for both bottling and manufacturing, but the availability of spot milk is decreasing with milk receipts at the plant declining. There is some optimism cheese prices will show further strength today. The FSA still has not yet released the average soybean meal price for June, which is needed to calculate income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Buyers are purchasing a bit more aggressively as they look ahead to demand later in the year. There is some concern developing over milk supply later in the year if milk prices do not rebound quickly and culling remains heavy. The strength of prices due to heavy culling and reduced milk production that took place in late 2021 into 2022 is still vivid in buyers and manufacturers minds.

BUTTER:

Price is increasing but without the strong movement as seen in cheese. Supply is more available, leaving buyers aggressive but not leap-frogging over each other to purchase what is available. Price is expected to increase, but on a more moderate basis.




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