Monday, July 3, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Remain Under Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 7 Higher
Soybean Futures: 40 to 55 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $13 to $15 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Pressure had been put on milk futures much of last week and much of the past three months. Fundamentals have not changed significantly. Milk production continues to remain strong with spot milk abundant being offered at low prices. There is anticipation milk production will decrease as the summer progresses and hot weather impact production and components. Increased culling may also reduce cow numbers. The long-range weather forecast predicts better rains to fall in areas that have been dry. This should improve crop conditions and increase the feed supply in those areas. USDA indicated the 94.1 million acres of corn that were planted this year should reduce corn prices if crop conditions improve. Sufficient corn supply at lower prices may keep milk production strong. Markets will be closed tomorrow for July 4 and will reopen at the usual time Tuesday evening.

CHEESE:

The supply of fresh cheese is plentiful with sellers continuing to offer it on the spot market. Buyers continue to hold back purchasing supply as needed rather than purchasing to build inventory more aggressively. There is always purchasing being done for aging programs, but buyers are not concerned over ongoing supply at the present time.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to have limited upside potential as it is near the upper end of the trading range. Cream supply continues to remain sufficient keeping churning active. Cream is expected to tighten as the summer progresses. Buyers have been able to increase ownership for later in the year with inventory growing.




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