Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Futures Reluctant to Rebound

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 8 to 14 Lower
Soybean Futures: 14 to 24 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $4 to $8 Lower
Wheat Futures: 14 to 18 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures followed cash prices lower. Class IV is in a better position than Class III as butter price has been sideways while cheese prices have been weak. One of the anchors in both categories is the weakness of powder prices. Both dry whey and nonfat dry milk continue to see weakness due to plentiful supplies. Both dry whey and nonfat dry milk are the result of higher cheese and butter production. Strong milk output leaves sufficient milk supply for bottling and manufacturing with extra available on the spot market at a discount for those who can use it. July Class III future falling below June is of great concern as the June price is already way too low for farm income. The current low price may result in substantially higher prices over time as milk production will eventually be curtailed. Tuesday is the last day to trade June futures and options with the Federal Order prices announced Wednesday.

CHEESE:

It would seem cheese prices are low enough to increase the interest of buyers to look ahead to demand later in the year and be more aggressive. However, with sufficient supply available in the country and product offered on the spot market, buyers continue to lower bids and are still able to purchase for needs. There is no concern over supply tightness.

BUTTER:

Price near the bottom end of the range may generate some buyer interest again. Business continues to be done without volatile price movement as buyers and sellers remain comfortable with supply and demand. There is nothing to generate any excitement in the market.



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