Thursday, June 22, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Set Back

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 7 to 10 Lower
Soybean Futures: 12 to 20 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $5 to $7 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures had a strong day Wednesday as some correlation trading activity was made due to higher corn prices as well as the anticipation the milk production report would be friendly. The milk production report was not as friendly as hoped with April production higher compared to a year ago. Cow numbers not declining from April was negative as culling had not yet increased significantly in May. USDA will release the May Livestock Slaughter report Thursday which will show the amount of dairy cattle slaughtered during the month. Higher slaughter may mean more replacements were available to take the place of those that were slaughtered. Cheese prices will need to move higher Thursday for milk futures to hold gains.

CHEESE:

Prices may have a difficult time seeing any sustained strength due to strong cheese production. Plentiful milk supply is keeping plants busy manufacturing cheese. Reports are that cheese demand is improving, which could keep inventory levels from building. USDA will release the Cold Storage report Friday which will show inventory levels.

BUTTER:

Buyers have been purchasing supplies and contracting for the fourth quarter, leaving little reason for them to be excited over any supply shortage. Churning remains active as plants utilize available cream supply. Inventory in May is expected to be higher than a year ago.



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