Thursday, June 15, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - June Milk Futures Fall Below $15

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 7 to 10 Higher
Soybean Futures: 15 to 18 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 8 to 10 Higher

MILK:

There is nothing supportive to say about the milk market. Heavy milk supply has overwhelmed the market with milk being dumped in places as plants are not able to handle the production. Cheese prices continue to decline as plentiful supplies leave buyers complacent and bidding lower prices on the spot market. Overnight trading activity moved June futures below $15.00 as price adjusts to the weekly AMS prices released late Wednesday. We have not seen a Class III milk price below $15.00 since May 2020. Spring flush has reached its peak, but production remains strong, keeping too much milk on the market for now. Culling may increase significantly as soon as farmers look for ways to generate operating cash.

CHEESE:

There is no interest from cheese buyers to purchase aggressively for later demand. Sellers continue to offer cheese on the spot market as they cannot move enough through regular outlets. They continue to offer cheese on the spot market to keep supply from building at the plant level. This does not look to be changing in the near term.

BUTTER:

At least butter price has been able to remain in a range providing more stability to Class IV prices. Price may remain in the range for a longer period as supply and demand are balanced and buyers have been able to purchase and contract ahead for demand later in the year. Butter has the advantage of being frozen and stored without changing its consistency.




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