MILK
Class III futures made new lows again this week. Underlying cash prices are choppy causing prices to roll down as premium erodes out of the market. Any price increase in underlying cash is short lived as buyers do not remain aggressive. Strong milk output keeps plentiful supply available to the market. USDA released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showing a decrease in the estimated of milk production this year of 200 million pounds from their May estimate. They estimate production at 228.4 billion pounds. The estimate for next year remained unchanged at 230.8 billion pounds. USDA lowered their price estimate for Class III milk this year to $16.70, down $1.05 from the May estimate. They lowered the 2024 price average $0.50 to $17.00 per cwt. Class IV price was raised $0.05 to $18.35 this year and raised $0.10 to $17.45 next year. The All-milk price was reduced $0.55 this year to an average of $19.95 and reduced $0.25 next year to an average of $19.65 per cwt. These estimates do not provide much hope for milk prices next year. Hopefully, this will change as that is a long way out.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $16.00 |
| 6 Month: | $17.12 |
| 9 Month: | $17.41 |
| 12 Month: | $17.54 |
CHEESE
For the week, blocks remained unchanged with 26 loads traded. Barrel increased 5.75 cents with 21 loads traded. The block/barrel spread closed the week with a 12-cent inverted price as barrels seem to be in better demand. Dry whey was up 1.75 cents for the week with 25 loads traded and 19 of those loads traded today. USDA estimates cheese price to average $1.73 this year. This is a decline of 9.50 cents from their May estimate. They also reduced the estimate for 2024 to $1.7750 per pound, down 4.50 cents from the previous estimate. Dry whey was reduced 2.50 cents to average 37.0 cents this year and reduced a penny to 36.0 cents for next year. Again, nothing to write home about other than it would be devastating to see these prices remain at these levels through next year.
BUTTER
For the week, butter fell 8.25 cents with 33 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk price increased a penny with 22 loads traded. The average butter price for this year was raised half a cent to $2.4350 while the average price for next year was left unchanged at $2.3350. At this rate, butter may remain in a sideways price range for a long time.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
July corn closed down 6.00 cents per bushel at $6.0425, July soybeans closed up 23.25 cents at $13.8650 and July soybean meal closed down $6.80 per ton at $397.20. July Chicago wheat closed up 4.00 cents at $6.3025. August live cattle closed down $0.40 at $171.85. July crude oil is down $0.91 per barrel at $70..38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 43 points at 33,877 with the NASDAQ is up 21 points at 13,259.
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