Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - A Change in Pattern is Not Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 6 to 8 Lower

MILK:

There seems to be nothing to light a fire under milk futures. Underlying cash continues to either chop around or slowly decline. Milk output continues to increase with strong cheese production. Manufacturers see more milk available and want to continue to move the finished product as quickly as possible rather than build inventory at the plant level. The desire seems to be to limit inventory as it costs money to store a product, especially when storing may not be cost-effective. Weather has been and continues to be good for cow comfort improving milk production. Continued low milk prices will eventually tighten milk production as culling will increase and farms exit the business.

CHEESE:

Buyers of cheese set the tone each trading session as lower bids are posted. Those remain until sellers post their offers which are generally lowered to find buyer interest at some level. If price increases, sellers seem to increase their offers. Supply is not being reduced and sellers are not holding back waiting for higher prices. Cheese output is strong with spot milk available to those who have plant capacity.

BUTTER:

Active churning keeps butter available to the market. Ice cream production is increasing utilizing some of the cream supply, but still leaving sufficient available for strong production. Retail demand is steady with food service demand showing some slowing. Cash price is expected to remain sideways for a while.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...