Tuesday, May 2, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Support Remains Elusive

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 7 to 11 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Underlying spot prices are not providing any support to milk futures. Sellers of the physical commodity on the daily spot market remain active, unwilling to hold for the possibility of higher prices. Current milk production is strong, remaining higher than a year ago. Spot milk prices continue to range from $4.00 to as much as $10.00 under class. It has remained in this range since the end of last year, setting a record. What is interesting is the wide range of spot milk prices for an extended period. Generally, the price range is much tighter for spot milk. Milk production continues to improve, which will leave sufficient milk supply for processors. Underlying spot prices will need to find support or further weakness is possible.

CHEESE:

Sellers continue to offer cheese on the spot market. They want to move product to minimize inventory build. In fact, it seems like they want to hold lower inventory than usual as it is more expensive to hold inventory. Manufacturers see strong milk production eliminating the concern over supply. This allows them to be more confident to hold limited inventory, keeping them aggressive sellers.

BUTTER:

Supply and demand are balanced, keeping price within a range. There is little concern over supply unlike last year. Even though ice cream production is increasing, cream is available keeping churns running on full schedules. With steady production and current demand, there is little to move the market. 



 

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