Thursday, May 4, 2023

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cash Might Show Further Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 4 to 7 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

The recent strength of underlying cash and milk futures is being viewed with caution. Price rallies have not been able to hold. Underlying cash will need to find further support, or the futures will continue to flounder. The Class III price for April was better than March, but May will be substantially lower unless underlying cash turns higher. Half of May is already priced with the chances of an increase in price reduced each day. Weather continues to be good for cow comfort and increased milk production.

CHEESE:

The increase of cheese prices may not hold if the pattern of sellers continuing to move product remains. At some point, sellers may have sold much of what they intended to sell, and the selling pressure may subside. However, cheese production is strong, and supply is readily available to the market.

BUTTER:

Price could break above the trend it has been in for much of the year. If this takes place, buyers could become more aggressive in the attempt to purchase supply before price moves higher. Butter production is expected to decrease as warmer weather materializes during the summer and cream supply tightens. 




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...